Friday, January 18, 2019

Friday, January 18, 2019 - Evening Weather Discussion

A crazy weather weekend ahead, then brutal cold, then a mid-week storm, then potentially the Polar Vortex and more storms…

Remember, send weather related photos or videos to edgeweather2@gmail.com and take a look at a couple of the snow pictures that were forwarded to me today.

Tomorrow clouds will increase with snow developing about 2 or 3 pm in the Allentown and Scranton, PA areas and about 8 pm on Eastern Long Island. The snow will change to sleet and freezing rain at night in East Central and much of Northeastern PA, in Northwestern and possibly Northeastern NJ, in Orange County, NY, and possibly the rest of the Southeastern NY State, and possibly in NYC, on Long Island, and in Fairfield County, CT.  The precipitation will be heavy at times.  The snow will change to rain in Central NJ. Highs tomorrow will be in the 30’s, with some low 40’s possible along the NJ Coast. It will become windy at night, especially in Central NJ, with gust of 20-40 mph possible.

Sunday, the precipitation will end in the morning, followed by clearing. Highs will be in the morning and will be in the upper 20’s to mid 30’s in Northeastern PA and Southeastern NY State (excluding southern Westchester County), the mid 30’s in East Central PA, Northwestern NJ and Fairfield County, CT, the mid to upper 30’s in Northeastern NJ and Southern Westchester County, NY, and the 40’s to mid 50’s in Central NJ, NYC, and on Long Island. Temperatures will then drop in the afternoon. Total rainfall amounts will be 1-2 inches, so there could be some flooding in areas that receive rain. It will be windy, with gusts of 30-50 mph possible inland and up to 60 mph possible in Southern Westchester County, NY, in Southern Fairfield County, CT, and on Long Island.

Total possible snowfall accumulations:  BASED ON THE LATEST PROJECTED TRACK OF THE STORM:

Trace to a coating possible:  Burlington and Monmouth counties in NJ southward

Coating to an inch or two possible:  Mercer and Middlesex Counties in NJ, Richmond, Kings, Southern Queens, Southern Nassau, Suffolk Counties in NY

1-3 inches possible:  Southern Hunterdon, Southern Somerset, Southeastern Union, New York, Northern Queens, Northern Nassau Counties in NY 

2-4 inches possible:  Central Hunterdon, Central Somerset, Northwestern Union, Hudson, Southeastern Essex Counties in NJ, Bronx County in NY

3-5 inches possible:  Southern Lehigh and Southern Northampton Counties in PA, Northern Hunterdon, Southern Morris, Northwestern Essex, Southeastern Passaic, and Southeastern Bergen Counties in NJ, Southern Westchester County in NY, and Southern Fairfield County, CT

4-7 inches possible:  Northern Lehigh and Northern Northampton Counties in PA, Warren, Southern Sussex, Northern Morris, Northwestern Passaic, and Northwestern Bergen Counties in NJ, Rockland, Northern Westchester, and Putnam Counties in NY, and Northern Fairfield County, CT

6-10 inches possible:  Southern Luzerne, Carbon, Monroe, and Southeastern Pike Counties in PA, Northern Sussex County, NJ, and Orange County, NY

9-15 inches possible:  Northern Luzerne, Lackawanna, Southern Wayne, and Northwestern Pike County in PA

15-25 inches possible:  Wyoming, Susquehanna, and Northern Wayne Counties in PA

Total possible ice accumulation:

Trace to a tenth of an inch possible:  East Central PA, Central and Northeastern NJ, NYC, Western Long Island

Tenth to a half of an inch possible:  Rockland, Westchester, and Putnam Counties in NY and Fairfield County, CT

Quarter of an inch to one inch possible:  Northeastern PA, Northwestern NJ, Orange County, NY

Monday will then be variably cloudy and very cold with a chance of a snow shower or flurry in the morning as some lake Effect moisture may reach our area. Lows in the morning will range from as low as ten below zero in parts of Northeastern PA to the mid-single digits above zero near the NJ Coast and on Eastern Long Island. Highs will be in the single digits to low teens.

Tuesday will then be nice, but very cold again in the morning with lows ranging from the mid-single digits below zero in parts of Northeastern PA to the low teens near the NJ and Long Island Coasts. Highs will be in the 20’s to low 30’s.

Wednesday, clouds will increase, with showers developing as a cold front approaches from the west. Highs will be in the upper 30’s to mid 40’s.

Next Wednesday a storm system will start to develop along the approaching cold front near the Gulf Coast. This storm will then move northeastward along the front, reaching a point very near us by Thursday afternoon. This storm should pull warm air in off the ocean and prevent the cold front from passing through our area until after it passes. This would bring us rain Thursday, possibly heavy at times. Highs will be in the mid 30’s to mid 40’s.

Next Friday is then looking nice with highs in the upper 20’s and 30’s.

Next weekend is then looking very interesting again as the entire Polar Vortex may drop into the United States behind the storm on Thursday. A disturbance will then approach from the west, possibly developing into a Nor’easter near or off the Middle Atlantic Coast next Saturday. This time though, with very cold air entrenched throughout much of the United States, there is an increased likelihood that this one would be a chance of snow. We will just have to wait and see how close to the coast the storm develops. This would bring us a chance for snow next Saturday and Sunday. Highs will be in the upper teens and 20’s next Saturday and the mid-teens to mid-20’s next Sunday.

Next Monday is then looking nice with highs in the mid-teens to mid-20’s.

Next Tuesday and Wednesday things may get interesting again as an approaching disturbance may develop into a Nor’easter near or off the Middle Atlantic Coast. It should still be very cold with the Polar Vortex over the United States, so this would again likely be a chance of snow. Highs will be in the mid-teens to mid-20’s.

Next Thursday then looks nice with highs in the upper teens to mid 20’s.

Have a wonderful evening and be sure to check back in for regular updates…

Below is a photo of the snow this morning in High Crest Lake, West Milford, NJ courtesy Gina Lee. Thanks Gina!


And below are photos of the snow this morning in Wantage, NJ courtesy Matthew Kenyon
Thanks Matthew!



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