This morning this will be strictly a weather discussion due to the amount of time it took to analyze the data. To see my actual forecast with snowfall estimates based on the latest data please look at my, “Look at the next 2 Weeks” post just prior to this one.
A storm will start to develop tonight along the Texas-Oklahoma border. This storm will then move northeastward along a stalled frontal boundary, reaching Northeastern Arkansas and Southeastern Missouri Saturday morning, Eastern Kentucky Saturday night, and Northeastern West Virginia late Saturday night. The storm will then hit a block that will make the storm turn due east, reaching a point between Delaware and Northern NJ Sunday morning, then a point near Eastern Long Island Sunday afternoon, and South of Coastal Southeastern Maine by Sunday night.
There will be very cold air just to the north of this storm and very warm and moist air to the south of this storm. The storm will push the warm and moist air into the cold air to the north, causing heavy snow to develop north of the storm, ice directly along its path, and rain to the south of the center of the storm. There will be a 20-degree temperature difference in only about a 10-mile-wide area wherever the center of this storm tracks. In our area, this boundary is currently projected to cut from just south of the Lehigh Valley, running through Bucks County, PA, through Central Hunterdon and Somerset, and Northern Middlesex Counties in NJ, then then through New York City and along the North Shore of Long Island. The way this is currently projected, high temperatures will be in the mid 30’s just north of this boundary Sunday morning and in the low to mid 50’s just south of this boundary. In addition, as currently projected on the models, New York County would be in the mid 30’s while southern Kings and Queens Counties would be in the low 50’s. Of course, this could all change when the new model data comes in this afternoon, but that is how it looks right now.
North of the track of this storm, heavy snow will fall from Northeastern Ohio, through Northern and Central PA, nearly all of NY state, Northwestern NJ, Northwestern Massachusetts, Vermont, New Hampshire, and Maine. Within this band of heavy snow, a band of extremely heavy snow will fall from Northeastern Ohio through Northwestern and North Central PA, Western and Northern NY State, Vermont, Northern New Hampshire, and Northern Maine, where 1-3 feet of snow will fall.
In our immediate area there will be a mixture of rain, snow, sleet, and freezing rain that will ultimately be determined by the exact track of this storm. Any shift northwestward with the track of the storm will mean less snow and ice in our area any shift southeast with this storm would mean more snow and ice. In this regard, the track of the storm is fairly certain up to Northeastern West Virginia, but then as it heads eastward from there the track is still very uncertain, varying anywhere from Delaware to Northern NJ. A track as far north as Northern NJ would mean much more in the way of rain in our area and less snow, but a track through Delaware would mean more snow and ice. We will just have to see how this works out, so please join me later for the latest information.
In addition to the heavy rain, snow, freezing rain and sleet, it will also be windy, with gusts of 30-50 mph possible.
For exact snowfall estimates based on the latest data please check my earlier post.
After this storm passes it will get brutally cold Monday and Tuesday with low temperatures getting below zero Monday and Tuesday mornings in many inland locations, and highs Monday only in the single digits in many places.
Then the middle of next week a storm may develop in the Southeastern United States, and then head northeastward up the coast at the same time that a cold front approaches from the west. We will need to keep a close eye on this potential.
After that, it looks cold into the following week with chances for storms to develop off the coast. We will just have to see how close those storms get to our area.
Yes, the next two weeks are looking very winter-like.
Have a fantastic day and please join me later today for the latest information…
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