For potential snow and ice totals, please see my prior post with the Look at the Next 2 Weeks.
A strong storm developed overnight near the Texas-Oklahoma border. This storm will move east northeast, reaching West Virginia tonight and will then pass through Central NJ tomorrow morning, passing over Long Island tomorrow afternoon, and then Cape Cod tomorrow night. The track of this storm has gradually been trending further north. There will be about a 20-degree temperature difference along the track of this storm in only about a 10 mile wide area from north to south, with temperatures in the low to mid 30’s just north of the track of the center of the storm, and in the low to mid 50’s just south. Right now, that line is projected to run from just south of the Lehigh Valley in PA, through Mercer and Middlesex Counties in NJ, Richmond and Queens Counties in NY, and along the South Shore of Long Island. North of that the line there will be a threat of snow and ice and south of that line there will be a threat of flooding rain.
The projected possible snowfall totals listed in my Look at the Next 2 Weeks earlier this morning is based on this current projected track. Obviously with a 20-degree temperature difference in about a 10-mile-wide area, any shift northward would mean less snow and ice in our area, and any shift south would mean more. The trend the past day or so has been for a slight shift northward, so if that continued, the snow and ice would be even less than what I issued this morning. We will have to wait and see. I will be able to post one more update before the storm really starts getting fully underway this afternoon. It is extremely difficult to put a forecast together in a situation where a boundary like this cuts right through your area. There is always some uncertainty with weather forecasting. It is not an exact science and the end result in a case like this will be very different if this boundary shifts even slightly north or south. So, please be sure to check back for updates.
After this storm passes by tomorrow morning, temperatures will fall rapidly, and it will be brutally cold by Monday morning with lows below zero in many inland locations, and possibly as cold as 10 degrees below zero in the coldest locations in Northeastern PA. Highs will only be in the singe digits in many places on Monday. There could also be a snow squall, snow shower, or flurry Monday as some Lake Effect moisture may reach our area. It will also be very windy, with gusts of 30-50 mph possible Monday, so the wind chills will be unbelievably cold.
Tuesday will then be nice and then Wednesday clouds will increase with rain developing as a cold front approaches from the west.
Thursday we will have a chance of rain as a storm system may develop along the front in the Southeastern United States and then push northward into our area, bringing warm air with it.
After the storm passes on Thursday the Polar Vortex may then push southward into the United States, bringing lots of cold air with it. A couple of disturbance could then approach the following week, bringing chances for snow.
Have a fantastic day and please join me this afternoon for the last update prior to the storm…
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