Clouds will increase this afternoon, with light snow developing tonight as a weak disturbance approaches our area. Highs will be in the upper 20’s to mid 30’s.
Tomorrow light snow will end early in the morning, followed by clearing, as the disturbance pulls away from our area. There will be a trace to an inch or two of snow throughout our area. Highs will be in the upper 30’s to low 40’s.
Things will then start getting interesting tomorrow night as a storm will start to develop along the Texas-Oklahoma border at the same time that a cold front passes through our area. Cold air will move into our area behind this cold front. The cold front will then stall south of our area. The developing storm system will then move eastward along this frontal boundary, reaching Arkansas Saturday morning, Tennessee Saturday night, Northern Virginia Sunday morning, a point just off the NJ Coast Sunday afternoon, and to just southeast of Cape Cod Sunday night. The storm will pull in copious amounts of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico, causing heavy rain south of the frontal boundary and heavy snow north of the frontal boundary from Ohio through Pennsylvania, New York State, Northern NJ, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Vermont, New Hampshire, and Maine. Within this band of heavy snow, there will be a band of extremely heavy snow from Northcentral PA, through Central NY State, Massachusetts, Southern Vermont, New Hampshire, and Maine where snowfall amounts will range from 18-36 inches, with up to 50 inches possible in East Central Maine.
It is the difference between the very warm and moist air to the south and the cold and dry air to the north that will cause this storm to become so strong and we will be right on the dividing line between the warm and cold air. Initially, cold air will be situated over our area, but it appears that the storm will track close enough to our area to pull the front northward, which would pull warm into southern sections of our area, and possibly aloft in areas further north. It is this warm air moving in aloft that will cause the snow to change to sleet and freezing rain, and then possibly rain in some places.
The heavy snow will likely be the main problem in northern parts of our area, with ice the main problem in central parts of our area, and rain and wind the main problem near the NJ Coast.
THE TRACK OF THIS STORM WILL MAKE ALL THE DIFFERENCE. ANY SHIFT FURTHER SOUTHEAST WITH THE STORM WOULD INCREASE SNOW AND ICE AMOUNTS AND ANY SHIFT FURTHER NORTHWEST WOULD REDUCE SNOW AND ICE AMOUNTS.
What all this means in our area is that clouds will increase Saturday morning with snow developing between about 2-3 pm in the Allentown, PA area and 7-8 pm on Western Long Island, becoming heavy at times. Highs will be in the upper 20’s to mid 30’s, with some upper 30’s possible in Central NJ.
Sunday, there will be snow, heavy at times early in the morning, mixing with and changing to heavy sleet and freezing rain everywhere except possibly in far Northern Northeast PA, and then possibly to heavy rain in northern portions of Central NJ, Northeastern NJ, NYC, Southern Westchester County, NY, on Long Island, and in Coastal Fairfield County, CT, ending in the afternoon. Lows will range from the upper teens to low 20’s in Northeastern PA, to the upper 30’s near the NJ Coast, with highs in the morning from the 20’s to low 30’s in Northeastern PA, to the 40’s to mid 50’s possible in Central NJ, then dropping in the afternoon (high temperatures may never get above freezing in East Central and Northeastern PA, Northwestern NJ, Orange, Rockland and Putnam Counties in NY, and in Northern Fairfield County, CT, and possibly into much of Northeastern NJ).
Total possible snowfall accumulations BASED ON THE LATEST PROJECTED TRACK:
1-6 inches from southeast to northwest: Central NJ and Long Island
3-7 inches: New York City from southeast to northwest
6-10 inches: East Central PA, Northern NJ (excluding far Northwest NJ), Rockland and Westchester Counties in NY, and Fairfield County, CT
10-12 inches: far Northwestern NJ, Orange and Putnam Counties in NY
10-15 inches: southeastern sections of Northeastern PA
15-25 inches: northern sections of Northeastern PA
Total possible ice accumulations:
Quarter to half of an inch: Eastern Long Island and NJ Coast
Half inch to one inch: Northeastern PA, Central NJ, NYC, Western Long Island, and Southern Westchester County, NY
Half inch to inch and a half: East Central PA, Northern NJ, the rest of Southeastern NY State, Fairfield County, CT
Total liquid equivalent amounts:
1.5-2 inches: East Central and Northeastern PA
1.5-2.5 inches: Northern NJ, Southeastern NY State, and Fairfield County, CT
2.5-3 inches: Central NJ, New York City
2.5-4 inches from west to east: Long Island
Possible wind gusts:
Up to 40 mph: East Central and Northeastern PA, Northern NJ, Southeastern NY State, and Northern Fairfield County, CT
Up to 60 mph possible: West Central NJ, NYC, and Coastal Fairfield County, CT
Up to 75 mph possible: East Central NJ (near the coast), and on Long Island
Monday will be variably cloudy with a chance of a snow shower or flurry as some Lake Effect moisture may reach our area. Lows will range from the single digits below zero to the mid single digits above zero with highs in the single digits, with some low teens possible along the NJ Coast.
Tuesday will be nice, but cold, with lows from the single digits below zero to the single digits above zero and highs in the upper teens and 20’s.
Wednesday clouds will increase with a chance of rain or snow developing as a disturbance approaches from the west. Highs will be in the mid 30’s to mid 40’s.
Next Thursday there will be a chance of rain or snow ending in the morning, followed by clearing. Highs will be in the 30’s.
Next Friday through Monday then look unsettled with a chance of a snow shower each day as several disturbances may pass through our area. Highs will be in the mid 20’s to low 30’s next Friday through Sunday and the 20’s next Monday.
Next Tuesday and Wednesday then look nice with highs in the 20’s.
Have a fantastic day and please join me this afternoon for the latest information…
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