First of all, if you didn’t already see my post from earlier this morning, please do that first, as I have provided the snow maps from all models. The post is titled, “The Dilemma this Morning”.
Today and tomorrow will be nice, but with a chance of a flurry in the afternoon or evening tomorrow as a cold front passes through our area. Highs will be in the 30’s.
Thursday, a disturbance will approach from the west, riding along the cold front that will be passing through our area tomorrow afternoon. This will cause clouds to increase in the afternoon with snow developing in the evening in East Central and Northeastern PA, Northern NJ, Southeastern NY State, and in Fairfield County, CT, and rain in much of Central NJ, NYC, and on Long Island, with the snow then mixing with or changing to rain in the rest of Central NJ, parts of Northeastern NJ near NYC, parts of Rockland, Westchester and Putnam Counties in NY State, and in Fairfield County, CT, as warm air moves into our area off the ocean. Highs will be in the upper 20’s to mid 30’s.
Friday the rain and snow will end early in the morning, followed by clearing, as the disturbance departs our area. It will be warmer with highs from the 30’s in Northeastern PA and the low to mid 40’s elsewhere.
Total possible snowfall accumulations Thursday night:
A Trace to a Coating: Central NJ, NYC, and Long Island
A Coating to an Inch or Two: Northeastern NJ, Rockland, Westchester and Putnam Counties in NY, and Fairfield County, CT
1-4 Inches: Northwestern NJ and Orange County, NY, with the highest amounts in western sections
2-5 inches: East Central and Northeastern PA
Friday night a very strong disturbance will develop along the stalled out cold front over Oklahoma and will then head eastward, reaching Kentucky Saturday night, then a point off the NJ Coast by Sunday afternoon. This storm will have a lot of moisture to work with from the Gulf of Mexico and a band of extremely heavy snow is likely to develop to the north of the track of the storm. The big question is the exact track of the storm as it passes our area. My current thinking is that the center of the storm will likely come close enough to our area to bring in some warm air. This would mean the most likely scenario currently would be snow changing to rain, and then possibly back to snow before ending, but small changes in the track will make the difference between the potential for all rain and extremely heavy snowfall. So, be sure to check back for updates.
Saturday clouds will increase with rain or snow developing at night. It will become windy. Highs will be in the mid 20’s to mid 30’s.
Sunday we will have rain or snow, heavy at times, ending at night. It will also be very windy. Highs will range from the upper 20’s to low 30’s in Northeastern PA to the 30’s to low 40’s along the NJ Coast and on Long Island.
Monday will be variably cloudy and VERY COLD with a chance of Lake Effect snow squalls, snow showers, or flurries. Lows will be in the low to mid single digits below zero in Northeastern PA and the single digits to low teens elsewhere, with highs in the upper single digits and teens.
Next Tuesday will then be nice, but very cold in the morning with lows in the single digits to mid teens and highs in the mid 20’s to low 30’s.
Next Wednesday clouds will increase with highs in the 30’s.
Next Thursday there will be a chance of rain or snow as a storm system approaches from the Southeastern United States. Highs will be in the mid 30’s to low 40’s.
Next Friday through Sunday then look unsettled with a chance of rain or snow showers next Friday and snow showers next Saturday and Sunday.
Next Monday is then looking variably cloudy with highs in the mid 20’s to low 30’s.
Have a fantastic day and be sure to join me later for the latest information...
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