Quick Update on Weekend Storm

The European model still brings extremely heavy snow from Northern Ohio, through Northwestern PA, Western and Northern NY State, Northern Vermont, Northern New Hampshire, and Northern Maine, with widespread amounts of 2-3 feet and up to 4 feet in some locations. It would bring only a little snow to East Central and Northeastern PA, with significant icing in Northeastern PA.

The American model has also shifted further northwest, with the latest run below. Courtesy WeatherBell Analytics. Click on the image to enlarge.

While the European model is most likely to be correct, I do have a bit of concern because, as you can see the American model ensemble mean and many of its 20 ensemble members still go a bit crazy with the snow in this area. They tweak the model 20 ways for various possibilities based on the current conditions. The last member is the mean of the ensembles and the first is the control run. Image courtesy Weatherbell Analytics. Notice how only one is really a miss, like the European model.

And even more concerning is the latest British model posted below, which is nearly as a good as the European model and it actually shifted slightly southeast of its previous run. Image courtesy f5wx.com.

So, while the most likely solution is one that takes the snow northwest of our area, excluding possibly Northeastern PA, it is clearly not set in stone yet and we need to continue to monitor this storm.

More a bit later on this and the Thursday night storm with the Evening Weather Discussion.

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