Ok, so all day I have been hearing and reading people say, “what is different this time”. Meaning, what will be different this time that will actually give our area significant snow as opposed to the many times recently where we either just got rain, or a mixture with some light snow in some places. The answer to this question is the location of the high-pressure area that is supplying the cold air to our area. The last many times the high-pressure area was situated over Quebec, Canada and then slid northward and weakened, allowing warm air to override the cold air very quickly. This time, with the high-pressure area situated right over us, the warm air won’t be able to override the cold air very easily and will in fact, more or less just push into our area as the high-pressure area slides to the east and out to sea. The end result will be more snow, before the change to sleet, then freezing rain, and then rain in some places.
The snow will start tomorrow about 8-9 am in Southeastern and East Central PA, about 9 am in Southern NJ, about 9:30 am in Central NJ, about 10 am in Northeastern PA and Northern NJ, about 11 am in NYC, about 11 am – 12 pm in Southeastern NY State and Eastern Long Island, around 12 pm in Fairfield County, CT, and 12-1 pm on Eastern Long Island.
The snow will become heavy at times starting around 11 am - 12 pm in Southeastern and East Central PA, around 12-1 pm in Central NJ, around 1-2 pm in Northeastern PA and Northern NJ, around 2 pm in NYC, between about 2-3 pm in Southeastern NY State and on Western Long Island, around 3 pm in Fairfield County, CT, and around 4 pm on Eastern Long Island.
The snow will then start changing to sleet around 6 pm in East Central PA and Southern NJ, with some rain mixing in Southern NJ, around 7 pm in Central NJ, with a changeover to rain likely in Southern NJ at this time, between 7pm and 8 pm the mix with sleet will start occurring in Northeastern PA and Northern NJ, between 8 and 9 pm in Southeastern NY State, NYC, on Long Island and in Fairfield County, CT, with a changeover to rain occurring in Central NJ at this time. The changeover to rain should occur between 9-10 pm in NYC and on Long Island. Then a changeover to freezing rain will occur about 10 pm in East Central and Northeastern PA, about 11 pm in Northern NJ and Southeastern NY State, and around 12 am in Fairfield County, CT. Then between 12 am and 3 am there may be a changeover to rain in East Central and Northeastern PA, Northern NJ, Southeastern NY State and Fairfield County, CT before the precipitation ends.
Total possible snowfall accumulations before the change to ice and rain:
One to two inches: Cape May County, NJ
Two to three inches: Susquehanna County, PA, Cumberland and Atlantic Counties in NJ
Two to four inches: Wayne County in PA, Putnam and Suffolk Counties in NY
Three to four inches: Wyoming, Lackawanna, and Pike Counties in PA, Salem, Gloucester, Camden, Burlington and Ocean Counties in NJ, Orange, Rockland, Westchester, and Nassau Counties in NY
Three to five inches: Chester, Delaware, Philadelphia, Montgomery, Luzerne, Carbon, Monroe in PA, Mercer, Monmouth, Northern Warren, Sussex, Morris, Passaic, Essex, Hudson, Bergen in NJ, Richmond, Kings, New York, Bronx, and Queens in NY
Four to six inches: Schuylkill, Berks, Lehigh, Bucks, Northampton in PA, Southern Warren, Hunterdon, Somerset, Union, Middlesex in NJ
There will also be significant icing in all of Eastern PA, West Central and Northwestern NJ, Orange and Rockland Counties in NY State, and in Northern Fairfield County, CT, with the chance for some icing in East Central and Northeastern NJ, Westchester County in NY, and in Southern Fairfield County, CT.
Temperatures tomorrow will be below freezing throughout our entire area until well into tomorrow night, except possibly right along the NJ coast, with the highs tomorrow at midnight tomorrow night and will range from the upper 20’s to low 30’s in Northeastern PA and Orange County, NY, to the upper 30’s to low 40’s in Central NJ and on the South Shore of Long Island.
Thursday and Friday will then be nice with highs in the mid 40’s to mid 50’s Thursday and the upper 30’s to mid 40’s Friday.
Saturday, clouds will increase as a disturbance approaches from the west, with snow developing in Eastern PA, Northern NJ, Southeastern NY State, and Fairfield County, CT, and rain elsewhere. The snow will change to rain in Eastern PA, Northern NJ, Southeastern NY State, and Fairfield County, CT, with a light accumulation possible before the changeover. Some ice will also be possible in Northeastern PA. Highs will be in the 30’s to low 40’s.
Sunday the rain will end in the morning, followed by variably cloudy skies and it will be windy. Highs will be in the 50’s.
Monday will then be nice with highs in the upper 20’s and 30’s.
Next Tuesday, February 26th, clouds will increase, with a chance of snow developing at night as a couple of disturbances approach our area. One from the west and one from the Southeastern United States. Highs will be in the 30’s.
Next Wednesday, February 27th, there will be a chance of snow as the two disturbances may combine to form a Nor’easter. Highs will be in the low to mid 30’s.
Next Thursday, February 28th, and next Friday, March 1st will then be variably cloudy with a chance of a snow shower. Highs will be in the upper 20’s to mid 30’s next Thursday and the upper 30’s to low 40’s next Friday.
Next Saturday night, March 2nd, into next Sunday, March 3rd, there will be a chance of snow as another disturbance passes through our area. Highs will be in the upper 30’s to low 40’s next Saturday and the low to mid 30’s next Sunday.
Next Monday, March 4th, and next Tuesday, March 5th, are then looking nice with highs in the low to mid 30’s.
I will post one last snowfall forecast update tomorrow morning, so please join me in the morning for latest information…
Have a wonderful evening!
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