I am going to put this out now with the estimated start times since it is already starting in parts of our area. I will post the full Evening Discussion in a bit…
A storm system is developing in the Southeastern United States and will start moving northeastward, intensifying as it does so, reaching a point along the coast of the Delmarva tonight and just south of Cape Cod, Massachusetts by Monday morning. This is causing a mixture of rain and snow to develop in Southeastern PA right now, with rain developing in South Jersey. Snow will develop in East Central PA between about 3-4 pm and a mixture of rain and snow in Central NJ. Snow will then develop in NJ between about 3:30 and 4:30 pm, with snow developing in NYC around 4:30 pm and rain and snow developing on Western Long Island between about 4:30-5:00 pm, and snow developing in Fairfield County, CT around 4:30-5:00 pm and rain and snow developing on Eastern Long Island around 5:30 pm.
The precipitation will then be a mixture in South Jersey before changing to rain and will continue to be a mixture in parts of Central NJ, with the mixture changing to snow on Long Island.
The dividing line between rain and snow will basically be from far Southeastern PA near Philadelphia, through Central NJ, Southern NYC, and along the south shore of Long Island. South of this line there will be mainly rain, with a trace to an inch or two of snow possible, in the mixture or transition area there will be mainly 2-6 inches of accumulation and this is where the forecast uncertainty is greatest. Any small change in track of the storm will make a big difference in snowfall accumulation amounts. North of this line the forecast is the easiest with a general 6-10 inches of snow likely, with localized amounts of up to 14 inches possible.
The precipitation will then end in the morning between about 2-4 am in Southeastern and East Central PA, between about 3-4 am in Northeastern PA and Southern NJ, between about 3:30 and 4:30 am in Central and Northern NJ and Orange County, NY, and around 5 am in NYC, the rest of Southeastern NY State and on Western Long Island, around 5 am in Fairfield County, CT, and between 5-6 pm on Eastern Long Island.
Total estimated snowfall amounts are depicted on the map below:
More a bit later with the full Evening Weather Discussion…
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