It currently appears as if the most likely areas for the heaviest rain will be in East Central PA, West Central NJ, and possibly into Fairfield County, CT. Below is the latest rainfall map from the short-range American model, indicating such (click on the image to enlarge), courtesy WeatherBell Analytics:
And below are the Flash Flood watches issued by the local National Weather Service offices:
Flood Watch
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
344 AM EDT Thu Jul 11 2019
DEZ001-MDZ008-NJZ007>010-012-015>019-PAZ060>062-070-071-101>106-
112000-
/O.NEW.KPHI.FF.A.0008.190711T1800Z-190712T0500Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
New Castle-Cecil-Warren-Morris-Hunterdon-Somerset-Middlesex-
Mercer-Salem-Gloucester-Camden-Northwestern Burlington-Berks-
Lehigh-Northampton-Delaware-Philadelphia-Western Chester-
Eastern Chester-Western Montgomery-Eastern Montgomery-Upper Bucks-
Lower Bucks-
Including the cities of Wilmington, Elkton, Washington,
Morristown, Flemington, Somerville, New Brunswick, Trenton,
Pennsville, Glassboro, Camden, Cherry Hill, Moorestown,
Mount Holly, Reading, Allentown, Bethlehem, Easton, Media,
Philadelphia, Honey Brook, Oxford, West Chester, Kennett Square,
Collegeville, Pottstown, Norristown, Lansdale, Chalfont,
Perkasie, Morrisville, and Doylestown
344 AM EDT Thu Jul 11 2019
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...
The National Weather Service in Mount Holly has issued a
* Flash Flood Watch for portions of northern Delaware, northeast
Maryland, New Jersey, and Pennsylvania, including the
following areas, in northern Delaware, New Castle. In
northeast Maryland, Cecil. In New Jersey, Camden, Gloucester,
Hunterdon, Mercer, Middlesex, Morris, Northwestern Burlington,
Salem, Somerset, and Warren. In Pennsylvania, Berks, Delaware,
Eastern Chester, Eastern Montgomery, Lehigh, Lower Bucks,
Northampton, Philadelphia, Upper Bucks, Western Chester, and
Western Montgomery.
* From 2 PM EDT this afternoon through late tonight
* Showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and tonight will be
capable of producing torrential rainfall, with local amounts of
1 to 3 inches with locally higher amounts potentially occurring
in a short period of time. This could lead to localized flash
flooding.
* The risk of flash flooding is highest in urbanized and low-
lying areas. Rapid rises on small creeks and streams are
possible.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A Flash Flood Watch means that there is the potential for flash
flooding which can be life-threatening. Heavy rain is expected to
occur over a short period of time. Rapidly rising flood waters may
quickly inundate roadways and areas of poor drainage. Streams and
creeks could leave their banks, flooding nearby properties.
Please monitor the forecast, especially if you live in a location
that is prone to flooding. Be prepared to take action if a flash
flood warning is issued for your area.
Flood Watch
National Weather Service New York NY
1023 AM EDT Thu Jul 11 2019
...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT...
NJZ002-004-006-103>108-120600-
/O.CON.KOKX.FF.A.0005.190711T2000Z-190712T0600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Western Passaic-Eastern Passaic-Hudson-Western Bergen-
Eastern Bergen-Western Essex-Eastern Essex-Western Union-
Eastern Union-
1023 AM EDT Thu Jul 11 2019
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...
The Flash Flood Watch continues for
* All of northeast New Jersey, including the following areas,
Bergen, Essex, Passaic, Union, and Hudson counties.
* From 4 PM EDT this afternoon through late tonight
* Showers and thunderstorms with an approaching warm front will
increase in coverage this afternoon and evening, with the rain
becoming heavy at times from late today into this evening.
Excessive runoff could lead to flash flooding of urban and poor
drainage areas. Some fast-responding small streams could
approach or exceed bank full.
* Rainfall of 1 to 2 inches is likely, and local amounts up to 3
inches are possible. Highest rainfall rates of between 1/2 to
1 inch are possible this evening.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation.
You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should flash flood warnings be issued.
If you are thinking about buying or selling a home, I am a licensed real estate broker in NJ and I would be happy to assist you. Please contact me at edgeweather2@gmail.com
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