European Model Ensemble Mean Now Shows Even MORE SNOW In Our Area With the Sunday/Monday Nor'easter...

Well, ladies and gentlemen, it is really starting to look as if we will be getting some snow Sunday into Monday, and possibly even significant or very significant amounts in a large part of our area.

Two disturbances will be approaching our area Sunday. One heading eastward from the Great Lakes area in the Northern Jet Stream and another moving northeastward toward our area in the Southern Jet Stream. These two disturbances and the associated jet streams will likely merge near the NJ Coast Sunday night. This will cause the two disturbances to merge and intensify rapidly, becoming a Nor'easter that will then pull cold air down from the north, and moisture off the Atlantic Ocean into our area.

There are still many details that need to be worked out with this system but it is looking increasingly likely that the majority, or all of our area will see accumulating snow with this storm, and possibly even significant or very significant amounts in some locations.

Below is the latest run of the European Model Ensemble Mean that just came out. Notice how it increased snow amounts rather dramatically on this run from the prior run, which in turn increased amounts from the run before that. The fact that snow amounts are increasing on the ensemble mean is important because we are getting closer in time to the storm and the model should be getting a better handle on things.

The European Ensemble mean is a compilation of the European Model run 50 different ways for various conditions, with half showing more snow than this, and half less, but again, it has been increasing on the last two runs.

The main operational run of the European model only goes out to 90 hours on the early evening run, so it is not of use yet. We will have to wait till morning to see what the main run of the model shows, but this was an important trend on the ensemble mean.

More in the morning. Let's see what happens.

Have a nice evening...

Below is the latest snowfall map from the European model ensemble mean, courtesy WeatherBell Analytics. Click on the image to enlarge.

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