One disturbance is approaching our area from the west at the same time another disturbance is approaching from the Southeastern United States. These two disturbances will combine near the NJ coast tonight, forming a Nor’easter. This will bring our area a mixture of rain, sleet, freezing rain, and snow today. The precipitation will gradually change to snow tomorrow from west to east as the storm strengthens, pulling cold air down into our area from the north. It will also become windy, with gust up to 40 mph possible in many locations, and possibly even a bit higher on Long Island.
Today, snow will develop this morning from southwest to northeast, except for rain developing near the NJ Coast, changing to rain in Central NJ and on Long Island, changing to sleet and freezing rain this afternoon in East Central PA, and tonight in Northeastern PA, Northern NJ, NYC, and Fairfield County, CT, and then to rain in parts of East Central PA, Northeastern NJ, and NYC tonight. The precipitation could remain snow in far Northeastern PA, Orange, Rockland and Putnam Counties in NY. A trace to an inch of snow may accumulate in East Central PA most of Northern NJ, NYC, and on Long Island, one to three inches may accumulate in the rest of Northeastern PA, far Northern NJ, Rockland, Westchester and Putnam Counties in NY, and in Southern Fairfield County, CT, and 2-5 inches is possible in Orange and Putnam Counties in NY and in Northern Fairfield County, CT. It will be windy during the day, with gusts of 20-30 mph, and up to 45 mph at night. Highs will be at midnight tonight from the low 30’s in Northeastern PA to the low 50’s along the Central NJ Coast.
Tomorrow the precipitation will change back to snow in Northeastern PA by at about 3 am, in East Central PA and Northwestern NJ by about 8 am, in Northeastern and West Central NJ, and the rest of Southeastern NY State by about 4 pm, East Central NJ, NYC, Fairfield County, CT, and Western Long Island by about 6 pm, and Eastern Long Island by about midnight, the snow will likely become heavy at times between about 4 pm and 9 pm, when 2-5 inches of snow will be possible in most locations, except possibly on Eastern Long Island, where a trace to an inch or two will be possible. It will be windy, with gusts up to 30 mph inland, and up to 40 mph on Long Island. Highs will be in the morning, ranging from the low 30’s in Northeastern PA to the upper 40’s to low 50’s along the NJ Coast, dropping to the upper 20’s to mid 30’s during the day.
Tuesday the snow will end in the morning from west to east, from about 5 am in East Central and Northeastern PA to about 7 am in East Central and Northeastern NJ and Southeastern NY State, about 8 am in NYC, and about 10 am on Long Island and in Fairfield County, CT. It will be windy, with gusts up to 40 mph possible in the morning, subsiding in the afternoon. Lows will range from the upper teens to low 20’s in Northeastern PA to the low to mid 30’s in East Central NJ, with highs from the upper 20’s to low 30’s in Northeastern PA to the low 40’s along the NJ Coast.
Total possible snowfall accumulation:
1-3 inches: Central NJ, NYC, and Long Island
2-6 inches: Northeastern NJ
3-6 inches: East Central PA, Southern Westchester County, NY, Southern Fairfield County, CT
4-8 inches: Northwestern NJ (except far Northern Sussex County), Rockland, Northern Westchester and Putnam Counties in NY, and in Northern Fairfield County, CT
6-12 inches: Northeastern PA, far Northern Sussex County, NJ, and Orange County, NY
Below is the snowfall map from the latest run of the European model ensemble mean (an average of the European model run 50 different ways for various conditions) that just came out. Image courtesy WeatherBell Analytics. Click on the image to enlarge.
Below is the snowfall map from the most recent run of the European model. Image courtesy WeatherBell Analytics. Click on the image to enlarge.
Below is the freezing rain map from the latest run of the European model. Image courtesy WeatherBell Analytics. Click on the image to enlarge.
Below is the sleet map from the European model that just came out. Image courtesy WeatherBell Analytics. Click on the image to enlarge.
Saturday and next Sunday, December 8th, will then be nice with highs in the mid 20’s to mid 30’s Saturday and the 30’s to low 40’s next Sunday.
Next Monday, December 9th and next Tuesday, December 10th, there will be a chance of rain, possibly changing to snow next Tuesday night as a storm system approaches from the Southeastern United States and then passes through our area. Highs will be in the mid 40’s to mid 50’s next Monday and the 40’s to low 50’s next Tuesday, dropping in the afternoon.
Next Wednesday, December 11th, there will be a chance of rain or snow ending early in the morning, followed by clearing. Highs will be in the 30’s.
Next Thursday, December 12th, and next Friday, December 13th, will then be variably cloudy with highs in the upper 30’s to mid 40’s next Thursday and the 40’s next Friday.
Next Saturday, December 13th, there will be a chance of showers as a disturbance passes through our area. Highs will be in the mid 40’s to mid 50’s.
Have a fantastic day!
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