Sunday, December 15, 2019

Sunday, December 15, 2019 - Morning Weather Discussion

Ice and snow developing late tomorrow and continuing into Tuesday…

Today will be variably cloudy with a chance of a flurry. Highs will be in the upper 30’s to mid 40’s.

Tomorrow, clouds will increase with light snow developing in the morning in East Central PA, in Central NJ in the afternoon, in the evening in Northern NJ and NYC, and at night in Northeastern PA, Southeastern NY State, on Long Island, and in Fairfield County, CT, changing to freezing rain in East Central PA and West Central NJ and rain in East Central NJ in the evening, and to freezing rain at night in southern portions of Northeastern PA, Northern NJ (except possibly Northern Sussex County and far Northern Passaic Counties), Southern Rockland and Southern Westchester Counties in NY, NYC, Long Island, and Southwestern CT. Lows will be in the mid 20’s to low 30’s, with highs in the upper 20’s to mid 30’s

Tuesday, freezing rain will change to rain on Long island, between about 1 am and 3 am, in NYC between about 3 am and 5 am, in West Central NJ and ports of East Central PA between about 8 am and 10 am, in portions of Northeastern NJ between about 10 and noon. Temperatures then dropping with some areas possibly changing back to freezing rain and then snow before ending between about 2pm and 4 pm in East Central PA and Northeastern PA, between about 3 pm and 5 pm in Northwestern NJ and Orange County, NY, between about 4 pm and 6 pm in the rest of Southeastern NY State, between about 5 pm and 7 pm in Northeastern NJ and Fairfield County, CT, between about 7 pm and 9 pm in NYC and Central NJ, and between about 8 pm and 10 pm on Long Island. Lows will be in the upper 20’s to mid 30’s, with highs in the 30’s.

Total possible snowfall accumulation:

Coating to an inch:  Coastal NJ

One to two inches:  Central NJ, NYC, Long Island

One to three inches:  East Central PA, Northeastern NJ

Two to four inches:  Northeastern PA, Northwestern NJ, Southeastern NY State, Fairfield County, CT

Total possible ice accumulation:

Trace possible:  inland Long Island

Trace to a quarter of an inch:  Northeastern PA, Rockland and Westchester Counties in NY, Southern Fairfield County, CT

Trace to a half of an inch possible:  East Central PA and West Central and Northern NJ

Below is the latest snowfall map from the European ensemble mean (an average of the European model run 50 different ways for various conditions), courtesy WeatherBell Analytics. Click on the image to enlarge.


Below is the latest snowfall map from the main European model, courtesy WeatherBell analytics. Click on the image to enlarge.


And below is the latest freezing rain map from the European model, courtesy WeatherBell Analytics. Click on the image to enlarge.


Wednesday through Friday are then looking variably cloudy with highs in the 30’s Wednesday, the mid teens to mid 20’s Thursday, and the mid 20’s to mid 30’s Friday.

Saturday, clouds will increase with a slight chance of rain or snow developing at night as a storm may form off the East Coast, maybe. Highs will be in the mid to upper 30’s.

Next Sunday, December 22nd, there will be a slight chance of rain or snow depending on whether the coastal storm develops. Highs will be in the upper 30’s to mid 40’s.

Next Monday, December 23rd, through next Saturday, December 28th are then looking variably cloudy with highs in the upper 30’s to mid 40’s next Monday, the mid 30’s to mid 40’s Christmas Eve, the 30’s Christmas Day and next Thursday, the upper 20’s to mid 30’s next Friday, and the 30’s next Saturday.

Have a fantastic day!

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