Mesoscale Discussion 1559
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1144 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2020
Areas affected...Central/Eastern PA...Western/Central MD...Far
Northern VA...Eastern WV Panhandle...South-Central NY
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 241644Z - 241845Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Numerous thunderstorms are anticipated this afternoon. A
few of these storms may be strong enough to produce damaging wind
gusts.
DISCUSSION...Scattered thunderstorms have developed quickly across
western/central PA over the past hour or so. Impetus for this
development appears to be modest forcing for ascent attendant to an
approaching shortwave trough impinging on the diurnally
destabilizing air mass. Mid-level lapse rates are relatively weak
across the region, but ample low-level moisture still results in
modest instability. Recent mesoanalysis estimates MLCAPE increasing
from around 1000 to 1500 J/kg from west to east across the region.
Continued heating over the next few hours is expected to result in
strengthening buoyancy. Additionally, mid-level flow increases
gradually with eastern/southeastern extent, with the strongest flow
currently extending from western VA/central WV northeastward across
the Delmarva Peninsula. Consequently, the environment downstream of
ongoing storms appears supportive of modest strengthening and a
resultant increase in the potential for a few damaging wind gusts.
Predominate storm mode will likely be pulse/outflow-dominant but a
few bowing line segments could also occur.
..Mosier/Guyer.. 08/24/2020
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX...
LAT...LON 41007801 42337678 42277520 41307497 39117595 38737768
39417882 41007801
Stay Healthy...
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