So, the question everyone is asking. How much snow? Well, depends on where you are…
The big question everyone has been asking me all week is how much snow we will get. I have been consistently telling people that I am not overly hyped about this storm. Yes, as I get older I like snow less and less, that is true, however the set-up for this particular storm is not perfect for a big snowstorm in a lot of our area as the high pressure area over Canada will be pulling away from our area just as the storm is approaching. This will cause warm air to start moving into our area quickly as the storm reaches our area. In addition, the center of this low pressure area will be passing across Southern NJ, and has been trending further north and west with each run. It is areas north and west of this center of low pressure where the heaviest snow will fall. Right now that appears to be Northeastern PA, far Northwestern NJ, and Orange County, NY. We just have to wait and see the exact track of the center of low pressure, but as I have been saying to people all week, the set-up is not perfect for a big snowstorm in much of our area. This doesn’t mean parts of our area won’t get a lot of snow. It does appear that northeastern PA, far Northwestern NJ, and Orange County, NY have a chance at upwards of a foot of snow, with 6-12 inches throughout much of East Central and Northeastern PA, Northwestern NJ, and Southeastern NY State (especially Orange and Putnam Counties, and inland Fairfield County, CT, with a coating to 6 inches of snow just southeast of those area, cutting across northwestern sections of Southeastern PA (northwest of Philadelphia), through Hunterdon, Somerset, far Southeastern Morris, Union, Essex, Southern Passaic, and Southeastern Bergen Counties in NJ, Southern Westchester County in NY, and near the coast in Fairfield County, CT., with only a coating likely in NYC and on Long Island.
The snow will start in the afternoon and early evening from southwest to northeast tomorrow, changing to rain in Southeastern PA, Southern and East Central NJ, NYC, and on Long Island, and ending gradually on Sunday from Southwest to Northeast.
First guess as to total possible snowfall accumulation:
Trace to an inch: Southeastern PA, areas in NJ from just North of Trenton to far Southeastern Bergen County, NJ, NYC and far Southern Westchester County, NY, and Long Island
1-6 inches: far Northwestern sections of Southeastern PA, Hunterdon, Northern Somerset, Southeastern Morris, Essex, Southern Passaic, and Southeastern Bergen Counties in NJ, Southern Westchester County in NY, and Southern Sections of Fairfield County, CT
6-12 inches: East Central and Northeastern PA, Northwestern NJ, Southeastern NY State (except Southern Westchester County), and Northern Fairfield County, CT
Below is the latest projected snowfall map from the European model ensemble mean (an average of the European model run 50 different ways for various conditions), courtesy WeatherBell Analytics. Click on the image to enlarge.
And below is the latest projected snowfall map from the operational run of the European model, courtesy WeatherBell Analytics. Click on the image to enlarge.
We will then have a nice Monday before rain develops Tuesday afternoon, becoming heavy at times Tuesday night, and ending Wednesday morning. This will likely cause some flooding in parts of our area.
More rain is then likely Saturday and Sunday, ending as rain or snow next Monday morning.
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