European Control Run

The control run of the European model just came in and is in near perfect agreement with the operational run of the model.  This is amazing consistency for this model as the control run factors in 51 different tweaks to the model to account for 51 different possible solutions based on the current data.  It looks nearly identical to the operational run of the model.  This is quite interesting. The American model last night was right over us with the storm, bringing so much warm air with it that it changed everything to rain, while the run of the model this morning was so far out to sea and so cold that it missed us out to sea. I think we are starting to see the superiority of the European model as we get closer on here in time.  The models start getting much better in this time frame and the European model is statistically the most accurate of all the models, so it makes sense that it would start catching on to the details.  On the other hand the American model has a bias of being too far to the southeast with these types of storms as it is this morning.  Remember how I said yesterday that the European model has a bias of being too slow with storms moving in to our area and that could be why it did not have the storm yesterday?  That turned out to be correct on my part, and I now believe that the American model's bias of being too far southeast is what that model is currently displaying.  From this point on, the European model is the one to watch as once it latches onto a storm, if often does not lose it, but it hones in on the details.  As they say, the devil is in the details. As is typically the case, this will be true with this storm as well.  Only time will tell.  Check back for constant updates and tell all your friends and family about the blog.