We have entered an extremely volatile and very interesting weather pattern. It is a pattern that is difficult to forecast and storms can pop up with little notice and have the potential to be quite significant. Northern New Jersey really lucked out yesterday with areas just to our south getting hit very hard with up to a foot of snow. Tomorrow another storm will develop along the arctic cold front to our west. This storm will ride up along the front and pass by our area, bringing with it snow. I am going with the European model ensemble mean which gives Northwestern New Jersey about 2 inches of snow and Northeast New Jersey about 2.5 inches of snow. The snow should start tomorrow morning around 5-5:30 am in western sections and around 5:30-6:00 in eastern sections and end around 1:30-2:00 in western sections and 2:00-2:30 in eastern sections. If by any chance the American models end up being right, then these amounts would have to come up as the American models have us down for more like 3-5 inches. After this storm passes, temperatures will drop dramatically. Then we will have to watch as a storm develops along the Gulf Coast on Friday. This storm will then move Northeast towards our area. It will bring with it some snow on Saturday. The snow could once again mix with sleet and freezing rain, and possibly even rain depending on the track it takes and how it develops. The storm should then exit on Sunday morning. There are then many questions as to what happens after next weekend. There is a possibility of another storm that could be quite significant the beginning to middle of next week, but there is no guarantee that this storm will actually occur. I must say though that I remain very interested in the time period between Saturday afternoon and the middle of the following week. The pattern at that time looks ripe for a major Nor'easter to develop, although that may not actually happen. Below is the post where I called the rain that we had on Friday night and Saturday better from 10 days out then I did from a day out, of course I was off by a day from 10 days out but you get the idea. Then I missed the storm of last night, but I saw the potential of tomorrow's storm apparently from 14 days out, calling the exact day and date. Read the last few sentences of my forecast from Tuesday, November 26th. And below that is my post about this potential storm from the next day as well. Again, naming the exact day and date from 13 days out!
My first reference to this possible storm was 15 days ago on the evening of Monday, November 11th. Of course I did not get into much detail. But I will paste this post below just so you can see. You may find it interesting. I am delighted that things did not turn out worse than they did today. The precipitation did start briefly as snow and the temperatures did dip below freezing in most areas to the west of Route 287. Ice did accumulate on trees and cars, but I did not have a major problem getting home today, with only a few small patches of ice on the roads. Most areas to the east of Route 287 remained slightly above freezing. Moving forward, we will have a crazy next 24 hours with heavy rain developing around 11 pm and continuing the rest of the night. Temperatures will rise to the low to mid 50’s by sunrise tomorrow morning, with very heavy rain between about 1 am and 9 am and moderate rain continuing until around 2 pm. Then it will start getting colder, with temperatures dropping to the 30’s in the afternoon and the rain will change to snow showers or flurries between 4 pm and 7 pm from west to east, ending in the early morning on Thanksgiving Day with a dusting to an inch of accumulation possible in some locations. Total rainfall amounts should be around 2 inches and the heavy rain during the rush hour will cause some major travel headaches in the morning with some flash flooding and ponding on roadways highly likely. In addition, winds will be gusting to 20-30 mph and possibly higher, so the morning commute is likely to be horrible. Then it will get quite cold for Thanksgiving Day with low in the mid to upper teens in the morning and the high only in the mid to upper 20’s and there will be a chance of a Lake Effect snow shower or flurry. It will continue to be cold on Black Friday with lows in the mid to upper teens and highs in the low 30’s and there will again be a chance of a Lake Effect snow shower in the morning. It will get even colder still for Saturday morning with lows dropping to the low to mid teens and highs in the upper 20’s to low 30’s. Then warm air will start to move back into the area on Sunday with a chance for some light snow on Sunday morning, changing to light rain by afternoon, then back to light snow on Sunday night. Then on Monday and especially for Monday night into Tuesday morning we need to watch for the possibility of a Nor'easter to develop near the Middle Atlantic Coast. If this storm develops it will move due north, likely remaining offshore, keeping us on the cold side of the storm, however it currently appears that it will be just a touch too warm for snow on Monday and Tuesday at this point in time. However, I will surely say that we need to keep a close eye on this one. If it intensifies enough, and fast enough, it could pull cold air into it, causing the precipitation to fall as snow instead. There are still several possibilities for this potential storm and it still has only about a 50/50 chance of occurring at this point. One is that the storm does not develop at all, or remains far off shore, keeping us dry. The second possibility is that it just sideswipes us or does not develop and remains a fairly weak storm, allowing the precipitation to fall as rain. The third possibility is that it could develop quickly and be quite intense, which could allow it to pull cold air into it and cause a big snowstorm. We will just have to wait and see what happens. We will then likely get another storm for Thursday night into Friday morning which will most likely be rain. The next chance of snow would be another potential Nor'easter for around Tuesday, December 10th or Wednesday, December 11th. Stay safe and be prepared for an extremely difficult morning commute tomorrow. Have a nice evening.
Well, the storm turned out pretty much as I expected with the exception of Northwest New Jersey getting a bit less rain than expected. Other than that, the storm did start briefly as snow and changed to freezing rain in many locations, and then we had flooding rains, followed by a light dusting of snow in some spots here at the end. The storm should be winding up here shortly and it is still snowing at my location in Northwest New Jersey with a dusting of snow on the ground. This morning’s commute was indeed quite interesting with flooded out roads and accidents. My GPS sent me on the scenic route this morning as Rt. 287 was a bottleneck due to the flooded road conditions. Moving forward, it will now be very cold through Saturday with a chance of a Lake Effect snow shower or flurry tomorrow and on Friday. Then late on Saturday night we will have to watch for the possibility of some light snow throughout our area as warm air starts to filter back into our area and we get a moist flow off the ocean. In a way, it will be ocean effect snow as moisture streams in off the ocean right in our direction. There won’t be much snow at all though if there is any. We would be looking at a dusting to an inch at most late on Saturday night into Sunday morning. Then a Nor'easter is now looking more likely to form on Tuesday. I am now upgrading the chances of a significant Nor'easter forming to about 66%. At the moment it does not look like it will be a major storm if there is one, but that is still a possibility as well. Also, as always, it appears we will be on the dividing line between rain and snow. It seems as if we always are on that dividing line here in Northern New Jersey, and right now this potential storm looks no different. Later in the week we will likely get another storm approaching us from the west with some rain for Thursday night and Friday, although the rain could start as freezing rain in some locations on Thursday night. Then as we move into the following week, there will be a chance of some more precipitation for Sunday,
and then there remains a chance of another Nor'easter developing around Tuesday, December 10th. Check back for updates on this upcoming Tuesday Nor'easter potential and tell all your family and friends about the blog. Have a wonderful evening.
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