We will be getting 2-3 inches of snow today from northwest
to southeast across the region with the lower totals to the northwest and the
higher amounts toward the southeast. The
snow should start between 6:30 and 7:30 and should end between 1:00 and 3:00
this afternoon. Things should start to
clear out by evening. Then tomorrow
morning will be extremely cold with lows dropping to the mid to upper single
digits and the high will only be in the mid to upper 20’s. Thursday will be brutally cold with lows
dropping to the low to mid single digits in the morning and the highs reaching only
the upper teens to low 20’s. Friday
morning the lows will once again drop to the low to mid single digits and the
high will be in the mid to upper 20’s.
Saturday will then once again be brutally cold with the lows dropping to
the mid to upper single digits and the highs reaching only the upper teens to
low 20’s. A storm will also be forming
along the Gulf Coast on Friday and Saturday.
This storm will then start moving northeast up the coast, becoming a Nor’easter
on Saturday night and causing light snow to develop around 1:00 pm on Saturday
which could become moderate by 8:00 pm on Saturday. At the moment it looks as if the storm may be
able to pull warm air in off the ocean which would turn the snow to sleet, freezing
rain and possibly rain around 2:00 am on Sunday morning. The precipitation should also become heavy by
around 2:00 am on Sunday morning. Total
precipitation amounts may approach 1.5 inches liquid equivalent and it
currently appears that significant snow may fall prior to any changeover, if
there is a changeover. If this storm were
to intensify a bit quicker, or track a bit more off shore, it would allow it to
pull cold air down from Canada rather than allow the warm in to move in off the
ocean, so we need to watch for this possibility. It will then get cold behind this storm for
early next week and another Nor’easter may form for Wednesday of next of week,
bringing another chance for snow. After
this we will need to watch as yet another significant storm approaches for the
following weekend and another one again for Tuesday, December 23rd. If we get the one on Tuesday, December 23rd,
it would pretty much guarantee a white Christmas. This is an extremely active and volatile
weather pattern with extremely cold air available to our north, and a very
active southern jet stream supplying storms with moisture from the Gulf of
Mexico and the Atlantic Ocean. I suggest
you keep a close eye on this blog and please tell all of your family members,
friends, relatives, neighbors and co-workers to do the same. Thank you and be careful this morning if
traveling. Posted below are my first
posts on this storm that I made starting 14 days ago. Read the last few sentences of each.
My first reference to this possible storm was
15 days ago on the evening of Monday, November 11th. Of course I did not
get into much detail. But I will paste this post below just so you can
see. You may find it interesting. I am delighted that things did
not turn out worse than they did today. The precipitation did start
briefly as snow and the temperatures did dip below freezing in most areas to
the west of Route 287. Ice did accumulate on trees and cars, but I did
not have a major problem getting home today, with only a few small patches of
ice on the roads. Most areas to the east of Route 287 remained slightly
above freezing. Moving forward, we will have a crazy next 24 hours with
heavy rain developing around 11 pm and continuing the rest of the night.
Temperatures will rise to the low to mid 50’s by sunrise tomorrow morning, with
very heavy rain between about 1 am and 9 am and moderate rain continuing until
around 2 pm. Then it will start getting colder, with temperatures
dropping to the 30’s in the afternoon and the rain will change to snow showers
or flurries between 4 pm and 7 pm from west to east, ending in the early
morning on Thanksgiving Day with a dusting to an inch of accumulation possible
in some locations. Total rainfall amounts should be around 2 inches
and the heavy rain during the rush hour will cause some major travel headaches
in the morning with some flash flooding and ponding on roadways highly
likely. In addition, winds will be gusting to 20-30 mph and possibly
higher, so the morning commute is likely to be horrible. Then it will get
quite cold for Thanksgiving Day with low in the mid to upper teens in the
morning and the high only in the mid to upper 20’s and there will be a chance
of a Lake Effect snow shower or flurry. It will continue to be cold on
Black Friday with lows in the mid to upper teens and highs in the low 30’s and
there will again be a chance of a Lake Effect snow shower in the morning.
It will get even colder still for Saturday morning with lows dropping to the
low to mid teens and highs in the upper 20’s to low 30’s.
Then warm air will start to move back into the area on Sunday with
a chance for some light snow on Sunday morning, changing to light rain by
afternoon, then back to light snow on Sunday night. Then on Monday and
especially for Monday night into Tuesday morning we need to watch for the
possibility of a Nor'easter to develop near the Middle Atlantic Coast. If
this storm develops it will move due north, likely remaining offshore, keeping
us on the cold side of the storm, however it currently appears that it will be
just a touch too warm for snow on Monday and Tuesday at this point in
time. However, I will surely say that we need to keep a close eye on this
one. If it intensifies enough, and fast enough, it could pull cold air
into it, causing the precipitation to fall as snow instead. There are
still several possibilities for this potential storm and it still has only
about a 50/50 chance of occurring at this point. One is that the storm
does not develop at all, or remains far off shore, keeping us dry. The
second possibility is that it just sideswipes us or does not develop and
remains a fairly weak storm, allowing the precipitation to fall as rain.
The third possibility is that it could develop quickly and be quite intense,
which could allow it to pull cold air into it and cause a big snowstorm.
We will just have to wait and see what happens. We will
then likely get another storm for Thursday night into Friday morning which will
most likely be rain. The next chance of snow would be another potential
Nor'easter for around Tuesday, December 10th or Wednesday,
December 11th.
Stay safe and be prepared for an extremely difficult morning commute
tomorrow. Have a nice evening.
Well, the storm turned out pretty much as I expected with the
exception of Northwest New Jersey getting a bit less rain than
expected. Other than that, the storm did start briefly as snow and
changed to freezing rain in many locations, and then we had flooding rains,
followed by a light dusting of snow in some spots here at the
end. The storm should be winding up here shortly and it is still
snowing at my location in Northwest New Jersey with a dusting of snow on the
ground. This morning’s commute was indeed quite interesting with
flooded out roads and accidents. My GPS sent me on the scenic route
this morning as Rt. 287 was a bottleneck due to the flooded road
conditions. Moving forward, it will now be very cold through
Saturday with a chance of a Lake Effect snow shower or flurry tomorrow and on
Friday. Then late on Saturday night we will have to watch for the
possibility of some light snow throughout our area as warm air starts to filter
back into our area and we get a moist flow off the ocean. In a way,
it will be ocean effect snow as moisture streams in off the ocean right in our
direction. There won’t be much snow at all though if there is
any. We would be looking at a dusting to an inch at most late on
Saturday night into Sunday morning. Then a Nor'easter is now looking
more likely to form on Tuesday. I am now upgrading the chances of a
significant Nor'easter forming to about 66%. At the moment it does
not look like it will be a major storm if there is one, but that is still a
possibility as well. Also, as always, it appears we will be on the
dividing line between rain and snow. It seems as if we always are on
that dividing line here in Northern New Jersey, and right now this potential
storm looks no different. Later in the week we will likely get
another storm approaching us from the west with some rain for Thursday night
and Friday, although the rain could start as freezing rain in some locations on
Thursday night. Then as we move into the following week, there will
be a chance of some more precipitation for Sunday, and then there remains a
chance of another Nor'easter developing around Tuesday, December 10th. Check
back for updates on this upcoming Tuesday Nor'easter potential and tell all
your family and friends about the blog. Have a wonderful
evening.
Posted by Dr.
Edge at 6:30 PM
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