The European and British models look nearly identical on their latest run. The good thing about that for Northern New Jersey is that they keep most of the rain to our south, with the heaviest rain over Southeastern New Jersey, where more than 2 inches of rain could fall. The one inch line cuts through Central New Jersey and up to about New York City. The half inch line cuts through Northeast New Jersey, with less than a half inch for Northwest New Jersey.
There is the possibility that this could change substantially tonight with the next model run, but at the moment this would be the best guess. There is also a chance that the area of heaviest rains, wherever they eventually line up, could have a small area of up to or over 5-6 inches of rain. As I said before, the most likely area for this at the moment appears to be somewhere over Southeastern New Jersey, but we need to be on guard in Northern New Jersey in case Mother Nature decides to throw us a surprise over night tonight.
After this storm passes, it still looks like a nice and warm weekend with highs around 80 from Saturday through Monday and possible even the low 80's on Sunday. The next chance for showers after this will be next Tuesday and Wednesday.
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