Saturday, February 28, 2015 - Morning Weather Discussion

Well, the good news is that spring-like weather will start by the end of the week after next…

The bad news is that we will likely have at least three significant snow/ice threats to deal with before we get there…

Today will be very nice but cold as lows have reached zero at my location in Allamuchy, Warren County. The high today will be in the mid 20’s.

The story for next week will be that a cold front will set up just to our south and waves of low pressure will ride along the front, bringing all kinds of weather to our area.

Tomorrow the first low pressure area will approach, causing snow to develop between 8 am and 10 am, and continuing until between 7 am and 10 am on Monday morning. The snow will likely mix with sleet and rain as you head south of Rt. 78, hence the lower totals as you head south.  At the moment, and subject to change, I am expecting total accumulations to be as follows:

3-5 inches - Carbon, Northampton, Monroe, and Pike Counties in PA, Warren, Sussex, Morris, Passaic, Essex, and Bergen Counties in NJ, Orange, Rockland and Westchester Counties in NY

2-4 inches - Lehigh and Northern Bucks Counties in PA, Hunterdon, Somerset, Union, and Hudson Counties in NJ, New York City and Long Island

1-2 inches - Southern Bucks County PA, Mercer, Middlesex, and Monmouth Counties in NJ

Then Tuesday the next wave of low pressure will approach, this time though it will push the cold front to our north, allowing warm air to surge into our area. This will cause snow to develop around 6-7 pm, mixing with and then changing to sleet and freezing rain between 10 pm and midnight, then changing to freezing rain with 1-2 inches of snow possible before the changeover.

Then Wednesday morning the freezing rain will change to rain between 2 am and 5 am with a tenth to a quarter of an inch of ice accumulation possible before the change to rain. Then we will have rain the rest of the day.

Thursday morning the rain may change back to snow between 1 am and 4 am as the front pushes to the south of our area and yet another low pressure area may ride along the front. The snow would then end between 10 am and noon. Honestly though, this one is very uncertain. Often these types of storms don’t work out with the timing of the cold front moving through and so on, but sometimes they do and if they do, sometimes they can be quite significant. We will need to keep a close eye on this potential for Thursday morning. It COULD disappear entirely or it could become even more significant. Check back for updates.

Then finally things should clear out for Friday through Sunday, starting out cold on Friday with highs in the mid 20’s, but warming to the mid to upper 30’s next Saturday and Sunday.

Next Monday we will then have a chance of rain or snow with a high in the low 40’s.

Next Tuesday and Wednesday we will have a chance of some rain or snow showers with highs in the low to mid 40’s.

Then the spring-like weather may arrive next Thursday and Friday with highs in the mid to upper 40’s.

"Weather on the Edge" by Dr. Edge.

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