This will be strictly a weather discussion this morning due to the amount of time required to analyze the data. For a detailed look at precipitation start times and temperatures, please look at my prior post titled, “Look at the Next 2 Weeks”.
A strong storm system will be developing in the Southeastern United States this afternoon and evening and will move rapidly northeastward, intensifying as it does so, reaching a point off the Delmarva Peninsula by late tonight and well off the NJ Coast, south of Cape Cod, by tomorrow morning.
The track of this storm will cause precipitation to move into our area this afternoon and evening, becoming heavy at times tonight, before ending tomorrow morning.
It currently appears that a large band of 4-8 inches of snow will occur throughout our area, with the possibility of a narrow band of as much as 8-16 inches occurring within this larger area of 4-8 inches. I have drawn a snowfall accumulation estimate map based on the latest data. Please keep in mind that any small change in track or intensity of this storm will make a big difference in who gets snow, and how much snow falls. Right now, it does appear that much of Southern NJ will get mostly rain, with Southwestern and East Central NJ, and Southeastern Long Island on the dividing line between rain and snow, with a mixture in those locations. It is important to understand that snowfall accumulation amounts are extremely difficult to forecast in mixture or changeover areas. As you can see on this map, in about 15 miles it is possible to go from nearly no snow to as much 8 inches of snow, so the smallest shift in the track of the storm can drastically affect snowfall accumulations in these areas. After mixture or changeover areas, the next biggest difficulty in forecasting is trying to predict where the band of heaviest snow will fall, as this is dependent upon determining exact storm track and where the maximum dynamics will occur in the atmosphere, which will affect snowfall ratios. The average ratio for determining snowfall amounts is using a 10:1 ratio, or 10 inches of snow for every inch of rain. However, if there are strong dynamics within the storm, ratios can go up quite dramatically to 20:1 or even higher in some cases. This is how I am determining the 8-16-inch band, as I am projecting now that this is where the strongest dynamics will occur. This is of course based on the latest data, which can easily change, if the storm shifts track or intensity. Likewise, ratios can be less than 10:1, and are often 5:1 or less in areas that are a mixture or changeover area, and that is how I am determining the changeover area of 2-4, but that can very easily change lower or higher with any change in track or intensity of the storm. So, basically to sum it up, what I am saying is that the easy part of this forecast is the main band of 4-8 inches that will be covering a large part of our area, and it is much more difficult to determine the 8-16 band and the 2-4 inch band, so if you are in those locations, my snowfall estimates may or may not work out for you. Just be sure to check back early this afternoon as there will be some fresh data available and I will post an updated snowfall map based on the data at that time.
So, below is my latest estimate for snowfall accumulations this afternoon into tomorrow morning, but please be sure to check back early this afternoon, as I will be posting an updated map at that time.
After this storm passes it will get extremely cold Tuesday through Friday with lows dropping below zero in many places in the morning, especially Thursday morning when lows could drop as low as ten below zero in parts of our area. There will also be a chance of a shower or flurry each day, especially Wednesday.
The next chance for significant precipitation will then likely be Next Sunday night into Monday as a disturbance approaches from the west and then passes through our area.
It then appears that things will finally start to warm the middle of next week (about 10 days from now), with a chance of rain next Thursday, March 14th, through next Saturday, March 16th.
Again, for a detailed look at the next two weeks, including detailed temperatures and snow start and end times for the storm, look at my prior post titled, “Look at the Next 2 Week”.
Remember, please check back early this afternoon for the latest information and have a fantastic day!
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