Tomorrow will be nice with highs in the mid 30’s to mid 40’s.
Sunday, one disturbance will approach from the west in the Northern Jet Stream while another disturbance approaches from the Southeastern United States in the Southern Jet Steam. This will cause snow to develop in the morning from southwest to northeast, except for rain being likely along the NJ Coast. The snow will then change to rain in East Central PA and Central NJ in the early afternoon, to sleet and freezing rain in Northeastern PA, Northwestern NJ, Southeastern NY State, and Fairfield County, CT, except possibly in Northern Orange and Putnam Counties, and in Northwestern Fairfield County, CT, where the precipitation may remain snow, and to rain in NYC and on Long Island in the late morning and early evening. It will also become windy Sunday night, with gusts of up to 50 mph possible, especially in East Central NJ and on Long Island, especially Eastern Long island. Highs Sunday will be Sunday night and will range from the upper 20’s to low 30’s in Northeastern PA to the mid to upper 40’s along the NJ Coast.
The two disturbances will then combine to form a Nor’easter near or just off the NJ Coast Sunday night. The Nor’easter will intensify rapidly, pulling cold air back into our area and causing the precipitation to change back to snow from northwest to southeast across our area starting between about 10 pm and midnight in Northeastern PA, the early morning hours in East Central PA, Northern NJ, and Southeastern NY State, and the mid-morning in Central NJ, NYC, Western Long Island, and Fairfield County, CT, and in the afternoon on Eastern Long Island. The snow will then end at night, with some flurries possibly continuing into Tuesday morning. It will be windy early in the morning with gusts of up to 35 mph possible inland and up to 50 mph possible along the NJ Coast and on Long Island, with the winds subsiding a bit in the late morning and afternoon. Highs will be in the morning, dropping to the upper 20’s to mid 30’s everywhere by afternoon.
I contemplated giving my first guess on snowfall amounts this evening, but there is still a bit too much variation in the data, so I will hold off till morning.
Below is the latest snowfall map from the European model, courtesy WeatherBell Analytics.
Below is the latest snowfall map from the European model ensemble mean (an average of the European model run 50 different ways for various conditions), courtesy WeatherBell Analytics.
Below is the latest freezing rain map from the European model, courtesy WeatherBell Analytics.
And below is the latest sleet map from the European model, courtesy WeatherBell Analytics.
Tuesday morning any leftover flurries or light snow will end early in the morning, followed by clearing. Highs will be in the 30’s.
Wednesday through next Sunday, December 8th, are then looking variably cloudy with highs in the mid 30’s to mid 40’s Wednesday and Thursday, the mid 30’s to low 40’s Friday, the upper 20’s to mid 30’s Saturday, and the mid 30’s to low 40’s Sunday.
Next Monday, December 9th, there will be a chance of showers as a storm approaches our area from the Southeastern United States. Highs will be in the 40’s to low 50’s.
Next Tuesday, December 10th, there will be a chance of rain, as a storm system passes through our area. Highs will be in the 40’s to low 50’s.
Next Wednesday, December 11th, will be variably cloudy with a chance of a snow shower. Highs will be in the mid 30’s to low 40’s.
Next Thursday, December 12th, will then be nice with highs in the 30’s.
Have a wonderful evening!
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