Tomorrow a very strong storm will develop over Northwestern Virginia. This storm will then track Northeastward through Southeastern PA, Northwestern NJ, and Southeastern NY State, intensifying rapidly as it does so. This track would allow warm air to remain in place in most of our area, but Northeastern PA will be on the northwest side of this track, which will allow cold air to be drawn into the storm, causing the rain to change to VERY heavy snow in the late morning and early afternoon. Roads could become nearly impassible in much of Northeastern PA within a couple of hours of the rain changing to snow. Anyone planning on traveling in Northeastern PA tomorrow should be at their destination by late morning if at all possible. The snow could accumulate from an inch or so in Southeastern Monroe County, to up to 10 inches in the highest elevations of Northeastern PA. Keep in mind that all this snow will fall in just 5-6 hours or so. If this really occurs like this, it will be a serious problem. Temperatures will drop very rapidly as the storm bombs out over us, with temperatures in the morning ranging from the mid to upper 30’s in far Northern PA to the upper 50’s to mid 60’s in Central NJ, dropping to from the mid 20’s in Northeastern PA to the low to mid 40’s in Central NJ and on Long Island in the afternoon. There could also be a coating to an inch or two of snow in far Northwestern NJ and Orange County, NY. The rest of our area will actually get off pretty easy, as with the center of the storm passing directly over us (basically an eye), the rain won’t be anywhere near as heavy as it had looked previously, but the new problem we will have to deal with will be the wind. Winds could gust tomorrow as high as 60 mph or even higher, especially on Long Island. The precipitation will end in the afternoon and evening from southwest to northeast.
Below is the latest maximum wind gust map from the European model for Thursday night and Friday, courtesy WeatherBell Analytics.
Below is the snow map from the latest European model, courtesy WeatherBell Analytics. Click on the image to enlarge.
Below is the latest rainfall map from the European model for Thursday into Friday morning, courtesy WeatherBell Analytics.
Saturday and Sunday will then be variably cloudy with a chance of a snow shower or flurry, and then a chance of rain or snow developing Sunday night as a disturbance approaches from the west. Highs Saturday will range from the mid 20’s to low 30’s in Northeastern PA to the upper 30’s to low 40’s in Central NJ.
Monday and Tuesday there will be a chance of rain as a disturbance passes through our area. Highs will be in the 40’s Monday and the upper 30’s to mid 40’s Tuesday.
Wednesday will be variably cloudy with highs in the mid 30’s to mid 40’s.
Wednesday night and next Thursday, February 13th, there will be a chance of rain or snow as a disturbance passes through our area. Highs will be in the upper 30’s to mid 40’s.
Next Friday, February 14th, is looking mostly sunny with highs in the 30’s to low 40’s.
Next Saturday, February 15th, through next Wednesday, February 19th, are looking unsettled with a chance of a rain or snow shower each day. Highs will be in the upper 20’s to mid 30’s next Saturday, the mid 30’s to low 40’s next Sunday, the mid 30’s to mid 40’s next Monday, and the mid 30’s to mid 40’s next Tuesday and Wednesday.
Have a wonderful evening!
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