Monday, February 12, 2024 - Weather Discussion

 

Massive model changes overnight indicate more snow for our area…

The model changes overnight were some of the biggest changes on models this close to a storm that I have seen in years. As I tell everyone I know, the biggest ones are the ones few people know about until just before the storm starts. This is because the big ones are formed by large disturbances in the atmosphere that are quite difficult for the models to pick up on. This is indeed the first storm in quite some time, and especially this winter that I am truly excited about from a meteorological standpoint. A strong disturbance is approaching from the west and will develop into a strong Nor’easter as it exits the Delmarva Peninsula early tomorrow morning and then heads eastward, south of Long Island. This path is perfect for a large snowstorm in the majority of our area. The onshore wind flow will likely bring copious moisture to our area late tonight into tomorrow morning. Winds will also be gusty with gusts up to 40 mph possible in Southern NJ, NYC, and on Long Island, and up to 50 mph possible along the NJ Coast. The only thing keeping us from getting a truly historic storm is the fact that it will be moving very fast, and the snow will come to an end in the late morning and early afternoon tomorrow from west to east. 

Rain and snow will develop tonight from south to north, changing to snow, then becoming heavy at times tomorrow morning, then ending in the late morning and early afternoon from west to east. There could be mainly rain in far Southern NJ.  It will be windy with gusts up to 40 mph possible in Southern NJ, NYC, and on Long Island, and up to 50 mph along the NJ Coast.

The below snowfall estimates are based on the short-range American and Canadian models. Keep in mind that if the European model depicted below ends up being correct, snowfall amounts will need to be adjusted in many locations as the European model is seeing things differently. It could be correct, but big model changes like that require another model run for certainty.  If the next European model run comes in similar, I will adjust snowfall amounts later today. 

NEW SNOWFALL ESTIMATES TO BE UPDATED THIS EVENING ON LATEST DATA!  FOR NOW, JUST REFER TO THE MAPS BELOW.

Below is the latest snow map for Monday night into Tuesday morning from the operational run of the European model, courtesy WeatherBell Analytics. Click on the image to enlarge.

Below is the latest snow map for Monday night into Tuesday morning from the short-range American model, courtesy WeatherBell Analytics. Click on the image to enlarge. 

Below is the latest snow map for Monday night into Tuesday morning from the medium-range American model, courtesy WeatherBell Analytics. Click on the image to enlarge.

Below is the latest snow map for Monday night into Tuesday morning from the short-range Canadian model, courtesy WeatherBell Analytics. Click on the image to enlarge. 

Wednesday will then be nice, followed by a chance for some snow showers Thursday afternoon and evening as a weak disturbance passes north of our area. 

There will also be a chance of a snow shower Saturday morning.  

Sunday and next Monday will be nice, followed by a chance for a snow shower or flurry next Tuesday and Wednesday and then a chance for snow next Thursday night February 21st  into next Friday., February 22nd. 

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