Saturday Evening Update

More questions than answers at this point. I am not going to make any changes to my previous forecast at this point because I think my previous thoughts do a good job of reflecting my ideas on the possibilities. The models were all over the place this afternoon, and my experience is that when this happens, you should just leave your forecast as is, until some model consensus develops. Here are the latest thoughts though from the main office of the National Weather Service in regards to the possible Friday storm.

THE VAST ARRAY OF SOLUTIONS BY OPERATIONAL MODEL LOWER FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND A CONTINUATION OF THE SOLUTIONS FROM THIS MORNING REMAIN IN ORDER. ALL INDICATION AT THIS TIME POINTS TO AN INCREASING POSSIBILITY OF VERY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE GULF COAST AND SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD AND MID ATLC COAST LATE NEXT WEEK AND WEEKEND WITH THE POTENTIAL INGREDIENTS FOR SIGNIFICANT COASTAL IMPACTS AND A LATE SEASON WINTER WEATHER THREAT.

Saturday Morning Update

The models continue to show the potential for some rain or snow, or both on Wednesday into Thursday morning. Right now, it looks to me as if the precipitation starts as rain on Wednesday during the late morning and changes to snow as the sun starts to set on Wednesday evening. The precipitation will also increase in intensity as the center of the storm moves closer to us on Wednesday evening, which should help the precipitation change to snow. The snow will likely have a hard time accumulating in eastern sections of Northern New Jersey, but will likely start to accumulate in the typically colder locations of northwest New Jersey. The snow should continue in all areas until Thursday morning, when it may change to rain before ending as the sun rises, especially in eastern sections of northern New Jersey. My best guess for snowfall accumulations at this point would be 1-2 inches for eastern sections of northern New Jersey overnight on Wednesday night into Thursday morning, with the possibility of 3-6 inches across sections of northwest New Jersey (northern Warren County, all of Sussex County, northern and western Morris County, and western Passaic County). The Friday storm is now in question. There are several possibilities with the Friday storm at this point. It is possible that the energy for this possible Friday storm will merge into this storm on Wednesday night and Thursday morning, making it slightly more significant. It is also possible that the storm could still develop into a very significant storm, which would hit on Friday afternoon into Saturday. There is also a possibility that the storm will develop and miss us to the east off the coast, or it is possible that the storm will not develop at all. Stay tuned. Have a great day everyone. I will post an update this afternoon after the afternoon run of the European model comes in and I have analyzed all of the afternoon model runs.

Friday Morning Update

A storm will pass close by on Sunday, probably bringing snow to northern Virginia and Washington, D.C. but missing us to the south. The next storm of concern will be a weak one that passes through on Tuesday night and early on Wednesday. This storm could be in the form of rain or snow, or both. If it falls as snow, which is definitely possible, it would be a 1 or 2-inch type storm. The bigger and much more interesting storm of concern will be on Friday according to both the American and European models. This has the potential to be a very intense storm with significant precipitation and strong winds as it develops over the southeastern United States and moves north into our area, as it strengthens. This storm could fall in the form of rain or snow, or both, depending on the exact track of the center of low pressure. The American model goes out to 16 days, and as of now, there is no let-up to the cold weather with chances of snow, right through the end of the 16-day period, according to the model. Stay tuned. Have a great day everyone!

New Run of American Model Has a BIG Storm Next Friday Now Too

The latest run of the medium-range American model now also has a very intense storm here for next Friday as well, very similar to what the European model just showed on its previous run. It could be rain, snow, or a combination. Let us see what happens. Stay tuned.

European Model Continues to Advertise a BIG Storm Next Week

It could be rain, sleet, snow, or nothing at all, but when the European model advertises a big storm it definitely catches my attention. It has shown something in the time frame between Tuesday and Friday now for several days, sometimes losing the storm, and then bringing it back. Right now on this model run it brought it back, which concerns me. It could be rain though, or of course it could miss or be snow. The interesting thing is that it could be a very intense storm with strong winds. This type of storm can certainly cause it to snow if you are on the cold side of the storm when it develops, even if it is Friday April 1 like it now shows. We shall see. Stay tuned. And, no, this is not an early April fools joke.

Final Snowfall Totals

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER REPORTS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
933 AM EDT THU MAR 24 2011

THE FOLLOWING ARE UNOFFICIAL OBSERVATIONS TAKEN DURING THE PAST 35
HOURS FOR THE STORM THAT HAS BEEN AFFECTING OUR REGION.
APPRECIATION IS EXTENDED TO HIGHWAY DEPARTMENTS...COOPERATIVE
OBSERVERS...SKYWARN SPOTTERS AND MEDIA FOR THESE REPORTS. THIS
SUMMARY IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON OUR HOME PAGE AT WEATHER.GOV/PHI

********************STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL********************

LOCATION STORM TOTAL TIME/DATE COMMENTS
SNOWFALL OF
/INCHES/ MEASUREMENT

NEW JERSEY

...HUNTERDON COUNTY...
WERTSVILLE 2.9 914 AM 3/23
FLEMINGTON 2.1 828 AM 3/24

...MERCER COUNTY...
HIGHTSTOWN 0.5 846 AM 3/23
EWING 0.3 410 AM 3/24 SNOW SLEET MIX.

...MIDDLESEX COUNTY...
CHEESEQUAKE 2.0 920 AM 3/23
METUCHEN 0.5 820 AM 3/24
EDISON 0.5 824 PM 3/23

...MONMOUTH COUNTY...
MANASQUAN 0.4 817 AM 3/23

...MORRIS COUNTY...
MARCELLA 11.0 825 AM 3/24
GREEN POND 10.0 823 AM 3/24
MILTON 9.5 751 AM 3/24
LAKE HOPATCONG 8.0 106 PM 3/23
LONG VALLEY 7.2 518 AM 3/24
ROCKAWAY 7.2 1100 AM 3/23
FLANDERS 6.5 805 AM 3/23
1 NNE DENVILLE 4.0 808 PM 3/23

...SOMERSET COUNTY...
POTTERSVILLE 3.9 834 AM 3/24
SOMERVILLE 1.5 800 AM 3/23

...SUSSEX COUNTY...
ANDOVER 10.0 900 AM 3/23
FREDON 8.0 822 AM 3/23
LAFAYETTE 5.5 755 AM 3/24
NEWTON 4.5 230 PM 3/23
WANTAGE 4.3 557 AM 3/24
SUSSEX 4.1 837 AM 3/24

...WARREN COUNTY...
BLAIRSTOWN 9.1 826 AM 3/24
HARDWICK TWP 9.0 800 AM 3/23
HACKETTSTOWN 5.5 732 AM 3/24
STEWARTSVILLE 3.7 847 AM 3/24
PHILLIPSBURG 2.0 845 AM 3/23

PENNSYLVANIA

...BUCKS COUNTY...
SPRINGTOWN 2.9 913 AM 3/24
FURLONG 0.6 911 PM 3/23 SNOW SLEET

...CARBON COUNTY...
KIDDER TWP 8.5 759 AM 3/23
BELTZVILLE 4.0 829 AM 3/24
LEHIGHTON 1.0 914 AM 3/23

...CHESTER COUNTY...
WEST CHESTER 0.1 837 AM 3/24

...LEHIGH COUNTY...
SLATINGTON 3.1 842 PM 3/23
ALLENTOWN 2.6 800 AM 3/24
ALLENTOWN AIRPORT 2.6 800 AM 3/24

...MONROE COUNTY...
POCONO SUMMIT 11.0 818 AM 3/24
BOSSARDSVILLE 10.2 821 AM 3/24
TOBYHANNA 9.1 1002 AM 3/23
BLAKESLEE 9.0 1000 AM 3/23
STROUDSBURG 8.8 738 PM 3/23 SNOW SLEET HAIL
KELLERSVILLE 8.0 541 PM 3/23

...NORTHAMPTON COUNTY...
WILLIAMS TWP 5.5 1203 AM 3/24

$$

MEOLA/DRAG




PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER REPORTS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
123 PM EDT THU MAR 24 2011

THE FOLLOWING ARE UNOFFICIAL OBSERVATIONS TAKEN DURING THE PAST 30 HOURS
FOR THE STORM THAT HAS BEEN AFFECTING OUR REGION. APPRECIATION IS EXTENDED
TO HIGHWAY DEPARTMENTS...COOPERATIVE OBSERVERS...SKYWARN SPOTTERS
AND MEDIA FOR THESE REPORTS. THIS SUMMARY IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON OUR
HOME PAGE AT WEATHER.GOV/NYC

********************STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL********************

LOCATION STORM TOTAL TIME/DATE COMMENTS
SNOWFALL OF
/INCHES/ MEASUREMENT

CONNECTICUT

...FAIRFIELD COUNTY...
BRIDGEPORT AIRPORT 2.5 800 AM 3/24 NWS COOP
SHELTON 2.1 740 AM 3/24 PUBLIC
NORWALK 2.0 715 AM 3/24 PUBLIC
NEW CANAAN 2.0 600 AM 3/24 SKYWARN SPOTTER
NEWTOWN 1.2 730 AM 3/24 PUBLIC
GREENWICH 1.0 625 AM 3/24 PUBLIC

...NEW HAVEN COUNTY...
NORTH HAVEN 1.3 530 AM 3/24 PUBLIC

...NEW LONDON COUNTY...
STONINGTON 2.0 600 AM 3/24 PUBLIC

NEW JERSEY

...BERGEN COUNTY...
1 SSE OAKLAND 4.0 900 AM 3/24 COCORAHS
WNW OAKLAND 2.3 815 AM 3/24 COCORAHS
RIDGEWOOD 2.1 600 AM 3/24 SKYWARN SPOTTER

...ESSEX COUNTY...
NEWARK AIRPORT 2.2 800 AM 3/24 FAA CONTRACT OBSERVER
MONTCLAIR 2.0 930 AM 3/24 PUBLIC
CEDAR GROVE 1.7 545 AM 3/24 PUBLIC

...HUDSON COUNTY...
HARRISON 2.0 800 AM 3/24 COCORAHS
HOBOKEN 1.2 645 AM 3/24 SKYWARN SPOTTER

...PASSAIC COUNTY...
WEST MILFORD 6.3 520 AM 3/24 PUBLIC
1 WNW LITTLE FALLS T 3.7 900 AM 3/24 COCORAHS
3 NE WEST MILFORD TW 3.2 700 AM 3/24 COCORAHS
HAWTHORNE 2.7 711 AM 3/24 SKYWARN SPOTTER
1 SSE HAWTHORNE 2.7 800 AM 3/24 COCORAHS

...UNION COUNTY...
1 ESE NEW PROVIDENCE 3.6 900 AM 3/24 COCORAHS

NEW YORK

...BRONX COUNTY...
PARKCHESTER 1.3 1000 AM 3/24 SKYWARN SPOTTER

...NASSAU COUNTY...
WOODMERE 2.3 900 AM 3/24 PUBLIC
SYOSSET 1.0 700 AM 3/24 NWS EMPLOYEE
FLORAL PARK 0.3 800 AM 3/24 COCORAHS

...NEW YORK COUNTY...
CENTRAL PARK 1.0 800 AM 3/24 CENTRAL PARK ZOO

...ORANGE COUNTY...
2 SE MONROE 4.7 900 AM 3/24 COCORAHS
NEW WINDSOR 3.7 845 AM 3/24 SKYWARN SPOTTER
MIDDLETOWN 3.5 720 AM 3/24 SKYWARN SPOTTER
HARRIMAN 3.3 500 AM 3/24 SKYWARN SPOTTER
MONROE 2.8 815 AM 3/24 PUBLIC

...QUEENS COUNTY...
BAYSIDE 1.5 900 AM 3/24 PUBLIC
NYC/JFK AIRPORT 1.3 800 AM 3/24 FAA CONTRACT OBSERVER
ASTORIA 1.0 800 AM 3/24 PUBLIC
NYC/LA GUARDIA 0.9 800 AM 3/24 FAA CONTRACT OBSERVER

...ROCKLAND COUNTY...
NEW HEMPSTEAD 3.0 945 AM 3/24 PUBLIC
STONY POINT 1.5 645 AM 3/24 TRAINED SPOTTER

...SUFFOLK COUNTY...
SHOREHAM 2.7 600 AM 3/24 SKYWARN SPOTTER
NORTH BABYLON 2.5 630 AM 3/24 PUBLIC
ORIENT 2.5 900 AM 3/24 PUBLIC
LINDENHURST 2.1 600 AM 3/24 SKYWARN SPOTTER
BRIDGEHAMPTON 2.0 800 AM 3/24 NWS COOP
ISLIP AIRPORT 2.0 800 AM 3/24 FAA CONTRACT OBSERVER
PORT JEFFERSON 2.0 600 AM 3/24 PUBLIC
RONKONKOMA 1.8 730 AM 3/24 NWS EMPLOYEE
CENTERPORT 1.8 700 AM 3/24 PUBLIC
MATTITUCK 1.5 900 AM 3/24 NWS COOP
STONY BROOK 1.4 930 AM 3/24 SKYWARN SPOTTER
UPTON 1.3 800 AM 3/24 NWS OFFICE
MEDFORD 1.0 800 AM 3/24 PUBLIC
SELDEN 1.0 602 AM 3/24 PUBLIC

...WESTCHESTER COUNTY...
ARMONK 2.9 720 AM 3/24 PUBLIC
YONKERS 1.6 914 AM 3/24 TRAINED SPOTTER
BRONXVILLE 1.5 630 AM 3/24 PUBLIC
1 SW YORKTOWN HEIGHT 1.5 900 AM 3/24 COCORAHS
2 NW SOUTH SALEM 1.5 900 AM 3/24 COCORAHS
WHITE PLAINS 1.3 630 AM 3/24 PUBLIC
RYE 1.1 500 AM 3/24 PUBLIC
LARCHMONT 1.0 500 AM 3/24 PUBLIC

$$

JP

Final Storm Thoughts

As the accumulating snow is ending throughout the area, I thought I would post a few storm reflections here. While I got the accumulation forecast right in some areas in Warren, Morris and Sussex Counties, I missed in other areas, especially in Northeast New Jersey, even though areas like Caldwell and West Orange manage to meet my forecast. A couple of things happened that caused my forecast to fail in those locations. One was that the main moisture at the start of the storm on Tuesday night did not make it into Northeast New Jersey much to the north of Caldwell and West Orange. Another was that the precipitation did change over to sleet as the convective activity on Wednesday afternoon and evening made it into our area. These things caused my accumulation forecast to fail in the locations where you did not get at least 6 inches. In my backyard, even with a change to sleet yesterday afternoon, we still managed to get about 7 inches of accumulation. Andover in Sussex County even reported 10 inches. As far as a comparison to the National Weather Service, I beat them in some areas and they beat me in others. Call it even I guess. However, I did talk about this possibility a week in advance when they only started talking about it a day in advance. So, maybe give the edge to me? Get it? Signing off for now from the Edge Weather. Have a great day everyone. In addition, yes, for now, it looks like the Sunday and Tuesday/Wednesday storms are going to miss us to the south, hopefully, anyway. I will let you know.

Updated Snowfall Totals - Look at Caldwell and West Orange and That is Just From Yesterday Morning!

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER REPORTS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
936 PM EDT WED MAR 23 2011

THE FOLLOWING ARE UNOFFICIAL OBSERVATIONS TAKEN DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS
FOR THE STORM THAT HAS BEEN AFFECTING OUR REGION. APPRECIATION IS EXTENDED
TO HIGHWAY DEPARTMENTS...COOPERATIVE OBSERVERS...SKYWARN SPOTTERS
AND MEDIA FOR THESE REPORTS. THIS SUMMARY IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON OUR
HOME PAGE AT WEATHER.GOV/NYC

********************STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL********************

LOCATION STORM TOTAL TIME/DATE COMMENTS
SNOWFALL OF
/INCHES/ MEASUREMENT

CONNECTICUT

...FAIRFIELD COUNTY...
BRIDGEPORT AIRPORT 1.0 800 PM 3/23 NWS COOP

NEW JERSEY

...BERGEN COUNTY...
1 SSE OAKLAND 1.0 900 AM 3/23 COCORAHS
WNW OAKLAND 0.5 840 AM 3/23 COCORAHS
1 E SADDLE BROOK TWP 0.2 700 AM 3/23 COCORAHS
1 SSE GLEN ROCK 0.2 805 AM 3/23 COCORAHS
RIDGEWOOD 0.2 1000 AM 3/23 SKYWARN SPOTTER

...ESSEX COUNTY...
NORTH CALDWELL 7.0 645 AM 3/23 SKYWARN SPOTTER
WEST ORANGE 5.0 800 AM 3/23 SKYWARN SPOTTER
CEDAR GROVE 2.7 545 AM 3/23 SKYWARN SPOTTER
NEWARK AIRPORT 1.2 800 PM 3/23 FAA CONTRACT OBSERVER

...HUDSON COUNTY...
N HARRISON 1.0 800 AM 3/23 COCORAHS
HARRISON 1.0 700 AM 3/23 NWS COOP OBSERVER
HOBOKEN 0.4 730 AM 3/23 SKYWARN SPOTTER

...PASSAIC COUNTY...
WEST MILFORD 3.0 915 AM 3/23 PUBLIC
WAYNE 2.2 715 AM 3/23 SKYWARN SPOTTER
1 WNW LITTLE FALLS T 2.0 900 AM 3/23 COCORAHS
1 SSE HAWTHORNE 0.7 800 AM 3/23 COCORAHS
3 NE WEST MILFORD TW 0.3 700 AM 3/23 COCORAHS

...UNION COUNTY...
1 ESE NEW PROVIDENCE 1.8 900 AM 3/23 COCORAHS

NEW YORK

...NASSAU COUNTY...
W FLORAL PARK 0.3 800 AM 3/23 COCORAHS

...NEW YORK COUNTY...
CENTRAL PARK T 800 PM 3/23 CENTRAL PARK ZOO

...ORANGE COUNTY...
MIDDLETOWN 3.0 930 AM 3/23 PUBLIC
MOUNT HOPE 3.0 1030 AM 3/23 PUBLIC
MONROE 2.1 845 PM 3/23 PUBLIC
CORNWALL ON HUDSON 2.0 700 PM 3/23 SKYWARN SPOTTER
2 SE MONROE 1.4 900 AM 3/23 COCORAHS
PORT JERVIS 0.6 700 AM 3/23 NWS COOP OBSERVER

...QUEENS COUNTY...
NYC/JFK AIRPORT 0.8 200 PM 3/23 FAA CONTRACT OBSERVER
NYC/LA GUARDIA 0.1 200 PM 3/23 FAA CONTRACT OBSERVER

...SUFFOLK COUNTY...
ISLIP AIRPORT T 800 PM 3/23 FAA CONTRACT OBSERVER
UPTON T 800 PM 3/23 NWS OFFICE

...WESTCHESTER COUNTY...
ARMONK 0.7 1200 PM 3/23 PUBLIC
1 SW YORKTOWN HEIGHT 0.5 900 AM 3/23 COCORAHS
2 NW SOUTH SALEM 0.2 900 AM 3/23 COCORAHS

$$

Updated Snowfall Totals

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER REPORTS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1118 PM EDT WED MAR 23 2011

THE FOLLOWING ARE UNOFFICIAL OBSERVATIONS TAKEN DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS
FOR THE STORM THAT HAS BEEN AFFECTING OUR REGION. APPRECIATION IS EXTENDED
TO HIGHWAY DEPARTMENTS...COOPERATIVE OBSERVERS...SKYWARN SPOTTERS
AND MEDIA FOR THESE REPORTS. THIS SUMMARY IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON OUR
HOME PAGE AT WEATHER.GOV/PHI

********************STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL********************

LOCATION STORM TOTAL TIME/DATE COMMENTS
SNOWFALL OF
/INCHES/ MEASUREMENT

NEW JERSEY

...HUNTERDON COUNTY...
WERTSVILLE 2.9 914 AM 3/23
WHITEHOUSE STATION 2.4 705 AM 3/23
LEBANON 2.1 614 AM 3/23
BETHLEHEM TWP 2.0 633 AM 3/23
FLEMINGTON 1.6 818 AM 3/23

...MERCER COUNTY...
WEST WINDSOR TWP 1.0 535 AM 3/23
HIGHTSTOWN 0.5 846 AM 3/23

...MIDDLESEX COUNTY...
CHEESEQUAKE 2.0 920 AM 3/23
METUCHEN 1.8 511 AM 3/23
EDISON 1.7 505 AM 3/23

...MONMOUTH COUNTY...
MANASQUAN 0.4 817 AM 3/23

...MORRIS COUNTY...
LAKE HOPATCONG 8.0 106 PM 3/23
GREEN POND 8.0 609 PM 3/23
MARCELLA 7.5 629 AM 3/23
MILTON 7.5 750 AM 3/23
ROCKAWAY 7.2 1100 AM 3/23
FLANDERS 6.5 805 AM 3/23
RANDOLPH TWP 6.5 559 AM 3/23
JEFFERSON TWP 5.0 630 AM 3/23
LONG VALLEY 4.0 448 AM 3/23
1 NNE DENVILLE 4.0 808 PM 3/23
BOONTON 2.0 910 AM 3/23
STIRLING 1.9 605 AM 3/23

...SOMERSET COUNTY...
POTTERSVILLE 2.5 819 AM 3/23
HILLSBOROUGH TWP 2.2 644 AM 3/23
BRIDGEWATER TWP 2.0 630 AM 3/23
SOMERVILLE 1.5 800 AM 3/23

...SUSSEX COUNTY...
ANDOVER 10.0 900 AM 3/23
FREDON 8.0 822 AM 3/23
SPARTA 6.0 707 AM 3/23
NEWTON 4.5 230 PM 3/23
LAFAYETTE TWP 4.0 914 AM 3/23
WANTAGE 3.0 530 PM 3/23

...WARREN COUNTY...
HARDWICK TWP 9.0 800 AM 3/23
BLAIRSTOWN 7.0 145 PM 3/23
HACKETTSTOWN 5.0 1113 PM 3/23 1.5 SINCE 7A 23RD
STEWARTSVILLE 2.8 756 AM 3/23
LIBERTY TWP 2.3 539 AM 3/23
PHILLIPSBURG 2.0 845 AM 3/23

PENNSYLVANIA

...BUCKS COUNTY...
FURLONG 0.6 911 PM 3/23 SNOW SLEET

...CARBON COUNTY...
KIDDER TWP 8.5 759 AM 3/23
BELTZVILLE 3.5 1041 AM 3/23
LEHIGHTON 1.0 914 AM 3/23

...LEHIGH COUNTY...
SLATINGTON 3.1 842 PM 3/23
ALLENTOWN AIRPORT 2.1 800 AM 3/23
ALLENTOWN 2.1 800 AM 3/23

...MONROE COUNTY...
TOBYHANNA 9.1 1002 AM 3/23
BLAKESLEE 9.0 1000 AM 3/23
STROUDSBURG 8.8 738 PM 3/23 SNOW SLEET HAIL
POCONO SUMMIT 8.0 700 AM 3/23
KELLERSVILLE 8.0 541 PM 3/23

...NORTHAMPTON COUNTY...
WILLIAMS TWP 4.0 413 PM 3/23

$$

DRAG

Look at All the Hail Reports

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
959 PM EDT WED MAR 23 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0654 PM HAIL BLAIRSTOWN 40.98N 74.96W
03/23/2011 E0.25 INCH WARREN NJ TRAINED SPOTTER

0656 PM HAIL MERTZTOWN 40.51N 75.67W
03/23/2011 E0.50 INCH BERKS PA TRAINED SPOTTER

0658 PM HAIL STROUDSBURG 40.98N 75.20W
03/23/2011 E0.25 INCH MONROE PA TRAINED SPOTTER

0701 PM HAIL HAMBURG 40.56N 75.98W
03/23/2011 E0.25 INCH BERKS PA TRAINED SPOTTER

0702 PM HAIL SINKING SPRING 40.32N 76.02W
03/23/2011 M0.25 INCH BERKS PA TRAINED SPOTTER

0703 PM HAIL MOUNT OLIVE 40.85N 74.73W
03/23/2011 E0.25 INCH MORRIS NJ TRAINED SPOTTER

0713 PM HAIL WHITEHOUSE STATION 40.62N 74.77W
03/23/2011 M0.25 INCH HUNTERDON NJ TRAINED SPOTTER

0718 PM HAIL 1 NNE READING 40.34N 75.93W
03/23/2011 E0.25 INCH BERKS PA TRAINED SPOTTER

0719 PM HAIL ELKTON 39.60N 75.82W
03/23/2011 E0.25 INCH CECIL MD TRAINED SPOTTER

0719 PM HAIL ALLENTOWN 40.59N 75.48W
03/23/2011 E0.25 INCH LEHIGH PA TRAINED SPOTTER

0723 PM HAIL FLEMINGTON 40.51N 74.86W
03/23/2011 E0.25 INCH HUNTERDON NJ TRAINED SPOTTER

0724 PM HAIL ELKTON 39.60N 75.82W
03/23/2011 E0.25 INCH CECIL MD TRAINED SPOTTER

0724 PM HAIL PIGEON RUN 39.63N 75.66W
03/23/2011 E0.25 INCH NEW CASTLE DE TRAINED SPOTTER

0730 PM HAIL EARLEVILLE 39.42N 75.92W
03/23/2011 E0.25 INCH CECIL MD TRAINED SPOTTER

0730 PM HAIL SPRINGTOWN 40.56N 75.29W
03/23/2011 E0.25 INCH BUCKS PA TRAINED SPOTTER

0743 PM HAIL ROYERSFORD 40.19N 75.54W
03/23/2011 E0.25 INCH MONTGOMERY PA TRAINED SPOTTER

0748 PM HAIL AMBLER 40.16N 75.22W
03/23/2011 E0.25 INCH MONTGOMERY PA TRAINED SPOTTER

0755 PM HAIL MALAGA 39.57N 75.05W
03/23/2011 E0.25 INCH GLOUCESTER NJ TRAINED SPOTTER

0756 PM HAIL FOLSOM 39.59N 74.85W
03/23/2011 E0.50 INCH ATLANTIC NJ TRAINED SPOTTER

0809 PM HAIL PLAINSBORO 40.33N 74.60W
03/23/2011 E0.25 INCH MIDDLESEX NJ TRAINED SPOTTER

0815 PM HAIL HIGHLAND PARK 40.50N 74.43W
03/23/2011 E0.25 INCH MIDDLESEX NJ TRAINED SPOTTER

0818 PM HAIL HOPEWELL 40.39N 74.76W
03/23/2011 E0.25 INCH MERCER NJ TRAINED SPOTTER

0819 PM HAIL HARLEYSVILLE 40.28N 75.39W
03/23/2011 E0.25 INCH MONTGOMERY PA TRAINED SPOTTER

0819 PM HAIL WESTAMPTON TWP 40.02N 74.83W
03/23/2011 E0.25 INCH BURLINGTON NJ TRAINED SPOTTER

0819 PM HAIL SMYRNA 39.30N 75.61W
03/23/2011 E0.25 INCH KENT DE TRAINED SPOTTER

0822 PM HAIL MILLVILLE 39.39N 75.05W
03/23/2011 E0.25 INCH CUMBERLAND NJ TRAINED SPOTTER

0822 PM HAIL NEWPORT 39.30N 75.18W
03/23/2011 E0.25 INCH CUMBERLAND NJ TRAINED SPOTTER

0824 PM HAIL OLD BRIDGE 40.41N 74.37W
03/23/2011 E0.25 INCH MIDDLESEX NJ TRAINED SPOTTER

0827 PM HAIL COLUMBUS 40.07N 74.72W
03/23/2011 E0.25 INCH BURLINGTON NJ TRAINED SPOTTER

0834 PM HAIL FRANKLIN TWP 39.60N 75.03W
03/23/2011 E0.25 INCH GLOUCESTER NJ TRAINED SPOTTER

0838 PM HAIL ELDORA 39.22N 74.91W
03/23/2011 E0.25 INCH CAPE MAY NJ TRAINED SPOTTER

0841 PM HAIL NEW BRUNSWICK 40.49N 74.45W
03/23/2011 E0.25 INCH MIDDLESEX NJ TRAINED SPOTTER

0841 PM HAIL SOMERVILLE 40.57N 74.61W
03/23/2011 E0.25 INCH SOMERSET NJ TRAINED SPOTTER

0842 PM HAIL SLATINGTON 40.75N 75.62W
03/23/2011 E0.50 INCH LEHIGH PA TRAINED SPOTTER

0843 PM HAIL HOPATCONG HEIGHTS 40.92N 74.68W
03/23/2011 E0.25 INCH SUSSEX NJ TRAINED SPOTTER

0855 PM HAIL OAK ORCHARD 38.60N 75.17W
03/23/2011 E0.25 INCH SUSSEX DE TRAINED SPOTTER

0905 PM HAIL OCEAN CITY 39.27N 74.60W
03/23/2011 E0.25 INCH CAPE MAY NJ TRAINED SPOTTER

0905 PM HAIL WOODBINE 39.23N 74.81W
03/23/2011 E0.25 INCH CAPE MAY NJ TRAINED SPOTTER

0905 PM HAIL SEAVILLE 39.21N 74.70W
03/23/2011 E0.25 INCH CAPE MAY NJ TRAINED SPOTTER

0908 PM HAIL WEST LAWN 40.33N 75.99W
03/23/2011 E0.25 INCH BERKS PA TRAINED SPOTTER

0936 PM HAIL TOMS RIVER 39.95N 74.20W
03/23/2011 E0.25 INCH OCEAN NJ TRAINED SPOTTER

0936 PM HAIL KUTZTOWN 40.52N 75.78W
03/23/2011 E0.25 INCH BERKS PA TRAINED SPOTTER

0937 PM HAIL CEDARVILLE 39.33N 75.20W
03/23/2011 E0.25 INCH CUMBERLAND NJ TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

EVENT NUMBER PHI1100040 PHI1100041 PHI1100042 PHI1100043 PHI1100044
PHI1100045 PHI1100046 PHI1100047 PHI1100048 PHI1100049 PHI1100050
PHI1100051 PHI1100052 PHI1100053 PHI1100055 PHI1100054 PHI1100056
PHI1100057 PHI1100058 PHI1100059 PHI1100060 PHI1100061 PHI1100062
PHI1100063 PHI1100064 PHI1100065 PHI1100066 PHI1100067 PHI1100068
PHI1100069 PHI1100070 PHI1100071 PHI1100072 PHI1100073 PHI1100074
PHI1100075 PHI1100076 PHI1100077 PHI1100079 PHI1100080 PHI1100081
PHI1100082 PHI1100084

$$

Updated Snowfall Totals

000
NOUS41 KPHI 240039
PNSPHI
DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ001-007>010-012>027-PAZ054-055-
060>062-067>071-241239-

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER REPORTS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
839 PM EDT WED MAR 23 2011

THE FOLLOWING ARE UNOFFICIAL OBSERVATIONS TAKEN DURING THE PAST 21 HOURS
FOR THE STORM THAT HAS BEEN AFFECTING OUR REGION. APPRECIATION IS EXTENDED
TO HIGHWAY DEPARTMENTS...COOPERATIVE OBSERVERS...SKYWARN SPOTTERS
AND MEDIA FOR THESE REPORTS. THIS SUMMARY IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON OUR
HOME PAGE AT WEATHER.GOV/PHI

********************STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL********************

LOCATION STORM TOTAL TIME/DATE COMMENTS
SNOWFALL OF
/INCHES/ MEASUREMENT

NEW JERSEY

...HUNTERDON COUNTY...
WERTSVILLE 2.9 914 AM 3/23
WHITEHOUSE STATION 2.4 705 AM 3/23
LEBANON 2.1 614 AM 3/23
BETHLEHEM TWP 2.0 633 AM 3/23
FLEMINGTON 1.6 818 AM 3/23

...MERCER COUNTY...
WEST WINDSOR TWP 1.0 535 AM 3/23
HIGHTSTOWN 0.5 846 AM 3/23

...MIDDLESEX COUNTY...
CHEESEQUAKE 2.0 920 AM 3/23
METUCHEN 1.8 511 AM 3/23
EDISON 1.7 505 AM 3/23

...MONMOUTH COUNTY...
MANASQUAN 0.4 817 AM 3/23

...MORRIS COUNTY...
LAKE HOPATCONG 8.0 106 PM 3/23
GREEN POND 8.0 609 PM 3/23
MILTON 7.5 750 AM 3/23
MARCELLA 7.5 629 AM 3/23
ROCKAWAY 7.2 1100 AM 3/23
FLANDERS 6.5 805 AM 3/23
RANDOLPH TWP 6.5 559 AM 3/23
JEFFERSON TWP 5.0 630 AM 3/23
1 NNE DENVILLE 4.0 808 PM 3/23
LONG VALLEY 4.0 448 AM 3/23
BOONTON 2.0 910 AM 3/23
STIRLING 1.9 605 AM 3/23

...SOMERSET COUNTY...
POTTERSVILLE 2.5 819 AM 3/23
HILLSBOROUGH TWP 2.2 644 AM 3/23
BRIDGEWATER TWP 2.0 630 AM 3/23
SOMERVILLE 1.5 800 AM 3/23

...SUSSEX COUNTY...
ANDOVER 10.0 900 AM 3/23
FREDON 8.0 822 AM 3/23
SPARTA 6.0 707 AM 3/23
NEWTON 4.5 230 PM 3/23
LAFAYETTE TWP 4.0 914 AM 3/23
WANTAGE 3.0 530 PM 3/23

...WARREN COUNTY...
HARDWICK TWP 9.0 800 AM 3/23
BLAIRSTOWN 7.0 145 PM 3/23
HACKETTSTOWN 3.5 702 AM 3/23
STEWARTSVILLE 2.8 756 AM 3/23
LIBERTY TWP 2.3 539 AM 3/23
PHILLIPSBURG 2.0 845 AM 3/23

PENNSYLVANIA

...BUCKS COUNTY...
FURLONG 0.2 858 AM 3/23

...CARBON COUNTY...
KIDDER TWP 8.5 759 AM 3/23
BELTZVILLE 3.5 1041 AM 3/23
LEHIGHTON 1.0 914 AM 3/23

...LEHIGH COUNTY...
ALLENTOWN 2.1 800 AM 3/23
ALLENTOWN AIRPORT 2.1 800 AM 3/23

...MONROE COUNTY...
TOBYHANNA 9.1 1002 AM 3/23
BLAKESLEE 9.0 1000 AM 3/23
STROUDSBURG 8.8 738 PM 3/23 SNOW SLEET HAIL
POCONO SUMMIT 8.0 700 AM 3/23
KELLERSVILLE 8.0 541 PM 3/23

...NORTHAMPTON COUNTY...
WILLIAMS TWP 4.0 413 PM 3/23

$$

MEOLA

Heavy Snow Now in Blairstown

That thunderstorm that just came through just brought in the cold air and changed us over to heavy snow now. Should be snow the rest of the night after these storms move through the rest of northern New Jersey.

Lightening and Thunder with Heavy Snow and Sleet! Amazing!

A line of thunderstorms has developed over eastern Pennsylvania and is moving into northern New Jersey now. I just had lightening and thunder here with a heavy snow/sleet mix and a temperature of 30 degrees. This after 5 inches of snow this morning. This has been a weather day for the memories. Amazing stuff.

Special Weather Statement for Thunderstorms with Hail

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
653 PM EDT WED MAR 23 2011

DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ001-007>010-012>027-PAZ054-055-
060>062-067>071-240045-
ATLANTIC NJ-ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY NJ-BERKS PA-BUCKS PA-CAMDEN NJ-
CAPE MAY NJ-CARBON PA-CAROLINE MD-CECIL MD-CHESTER PA-
COASTAL ATLANTIC NJ-COASTAL OCEAN NJ-CUMBERLAND NJ-DELAWARE PA-
DELAWARE BEACHES DE-EASTERN MONMOUTH NJ-GLOUCESTER NJ-HUNTERDON NJ-
INLAND SUSSEX DE-KENT MD-KENT DE-LEHIGH PA-MERCER NJ-MIDDLESEX NJ-
MONROE PA-MONTGOMERY PA-MORRIS NJ-NEW CASTLE DE-NORTHAMPTON PA-
NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON NJ-OCEAN NJ-PHILADELPHIA PA-QUEEN ANNE`S MD-
SALEM NJ-SOMERSET NJ-SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON NJ-SUSSEX NJ-TALBOT MD-
WARREN NJ-WESTERN MONMOUTH NJ-
653 PM EDT WED MAR 23 2011

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. PEA TO DIME SIZED HAIL AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH ANY OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS.

LAT...LON 3845 7564 3846 7570 3876 7640 3877 7640
3875 7635 4014 7590 4050 7644 4123 7554
4109 7501 4135 7468 4041 7399 4047 7399
4046 7398 4043 7396 3978 7408 3892 7495
3951 7553 3958 7554 3958 7556 3846 7503

2012 Anyone?

Just had some weather here that I have never had before in my life. Just had a thunderstorm with a sleet and hail mixture and a temperature of 30 degrees. Amazing.

Tornado Just Spotted Near Pittsburgh, PA in a Tremendous Thunderstorm and it Will Be Snow or Sleet When it Gets Here in a Few Hours

0445 PM TORNADO 5 SW GREENSBURG 40.25N 79.61W03/23/2011 WESTMORELAND PA STORM CHASER POSSIBLE TORNADO DAMAGE. ROOFS OFF OF SEVERAL HOUSES ALONG ROUTE 136 HEMPFIELD TWP.

To Give You an Idea of the Potential Over the Next Few Hours

To give you an idea of the potential for interesting weather tonight. The National Weather Service issued a Tornado Watch for this evening for southwest Pennsylvania and a Severe Thunderstorm Watch for south central Pennsylvania, as close as about 25 miles west of Allentown, Pennsylvania. A tornado was even spotted in the past hour by National Weather Service radar near Pittsburgh. Amazing stuff and it is all headed this way into our cold air. Will be interesting to see what happens.

Tornado Watch

TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 55
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
115 PM EDT WED MAR 23 2011

TORNADO WATCH 55 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

PAC003-007-051-059-125-129-240100-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0055.110323T1715Z-110324T0100Z/

PA
. PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ALLEGHENY BEAVER FAYETTE
GREENE WASHINGTON WESTMORELAND
$$




Severe Thunderstorm Warning

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
OHC029-081-PAC003-007-125-WVC009-029-232145-
/O.NEW.KPBZ.SV.W.0019.110323T2042Z-110323T2145Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
442 PM EDT WED MAR 23 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PITTSBURGH HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
EXTREME SOUTH CENTRAL COLUMBIANA COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL OHIO...
NORTHEASTERN JEFFERSON COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL OHIO...
NORTHWESTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA...
EXTREME WEST CENTRAL ALLEGHENY COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA...
SOUTHWESTERN BEAVER COUNTY IN WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA...
NORTHEASTERN BROOKE COUNTY IN NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA...
HANCOCK COUNTY IN NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA...

* UNTIL 545 PM EDT

* AT 441 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
NEW MANCHESTER...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
WEIRTON... TOMLINSON RUN STATE PARK...
NEW MANCHESTER... NEW CUMBERLAND... TORONTO...
SUN VALLEY... FLORENCE... SHIPPINGPORT...
HARSHAVILLE... RACCOON CREEK STATE PARK...
BURGETTSTOWN...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT WEDNESDAY EVENING
FOR WESTERN MARYLAND AND EAST CENTRAL OHIO AND SOUTHWESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA.

&&

LAT...LON 4068 8031 4035 8024 4038 8071 4058 8070
TIME...MOT...LOC 2043Z 269DEG 34KT 4052 8057

$$

Severe Thunderstorm Watch

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 57
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
415 PM EDT WED MAR 23 2011

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 57 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM EDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

PAC001-009-013-021-041-055-057-061-067-087-099-111-240300-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0057.110323T2015Z-110324T0300Z/

PA
. PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ADAMS BEDFORD BLAIR
CAMBRIA CUMBERLAND FRANKLIN
FULTON HUNTINGDON JUNIATA
MIFFLIN PERRY SOMERSET
$$

Winter Weather Advisory Just Issued for Tonight

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
358 PM EDT WED MAR 23 2011

...ANOTHER ROUND OF WINTRY WEATHER TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING...

CTZ005>008-NJZ004-103-105-107-NYZ068>070-240400-
/O.CON.KOKX.WW.Y.0010.000000T0000Z-110324T1400Z/
NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX-
NORTHERN NEW LONDON-EASTERN PASSAIC-WESTERN BERGEN-WESTERN ESSEX-
WESTERN UNION-PUTNAM-ROCKLAND-NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-
358 PM EDT WED MAR 23 2011

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EDT
THURSDAY...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EDT
THURSDAY.

* LOCATIONS...NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY...INTERIOR SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT...
AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY.

* HAZARD TYPES...MODERATE SNOW. THE SNOW MAY MIX WITH SLEET AND
RAIN IN THE EVENING.

* ACCUMULATIONS...3 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. HIGHEST AMOUNTS WILL BE
CONFINED TO GRASSY SURFACES.

* TIMING...ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING. THE STEADIEST SNOW WILL FALL BETWEEN 8 PM AND MIDNIGHT.
LIGHT SNOW WILL LINGER INTO THE MORNING.

* IMPACTS...EXPECT HAZARDOUS ROAD CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP AS
TEMPERATURES DROP TO NEAR FREEZING...ALLOWING FOR A SLUSHY
ACCUMULATION.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR
FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.

Update from the National Weather Service - They Agree With My Earlier Statements

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
316 PM EDT WED MAR 23 2011

NJZ001-007-008-PAZ054-055-062-240400-
/O.CON.KPHI.WS.W.0008.000000T0000Z-110324T1000Z/
SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-CARBON-MONROE-NORTHAMPTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWTON...WASHINGTON...MORRISTOWN...
JIM THORPE...STROUDSBURG...BETHLEHEM...EASTON
316 PM EDT WED MAR 23 2011

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EDT
THURSDAY...

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY.

* LOCATIONS...THE SOUTHERN POCONOS AND NORTHERN NEW JERSEY.

* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW...WITH SOME RAIN MIXING IN AT TIMES THIS
EVENING.

* ACCUMULATIONS...A FEW MORE INCHES ATOP OF WHAT HAS ALREADY
FALLEN. THIS WILL BRING THE STORM TOTAL TO BETWEEN 4 TO 8 INCHES
IN MOST AREAS. LOCALLY...10 INCHES AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.

* TIMING...TONIGHT.

* IMPACTS...ROADS WILL BE SLICK WITH ACCUMULATED SNOW AND SLEET.
THE WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND TAPER OFF
THURSDAY MORNING. SOME RAIN MAY MIX AT TIMES WITH THE SNOW THIS
EVENING. THE GREATEST IMPACTS WILL BE IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS...AS
WELL AS ON UNTREATED AND SECONDARY ROADS.

* WINDS...MOSTLY NORTHEAST 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW...
SLEET...AND ICE ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE.

Longer Range Outlook for the Next Week

The temperatures will start to plummet on Friday with lows in the lower 20's and highs on Friday in the mid 30's. Saturday will have lows in the morning in the upper teens and highs in the mid 30's. Sunday will again see a low in the upper teens and a high in the lower 30's and there is a possibility of snow on Sunday that will need to be watched, but this low may actually stay south of us and bring snow to Washington D.C. instead. Lows on Monday morning should be in the upper teens and highs on Monday in the middle 30's. Tuesday morning the lows will be in the upper 20's with highs in the middle 30's and a chance of snow re-entering the forecast, but once again this storm could miss us to the south. On Wednesday, the lows should be in the lower 30's in the morning with a high in the middle 30's with a chance of snow. Stay tuned, but with any luck, the other storms on Sunday and Tuesday/Wednesday will miss us to the south. Let us hope.

Snow Will Start to Accumulate Again Tonight

As the temperatures start to fall with sunset tonight, the snow will once again start to accumulate. Temperatures should get below freezing everywhere, so everyone should see accumulating snows again once the sun sets. The precipitation will also intensify as the low-pressure center approaches from the west, right as the sun starts to lower around 5pm. This heavier precipitation should continue until around midnight. During this period, there should be 2-4 inches of accumulation. Light snow and flurries will continue to fall until around 8am with only a dusting of accumulation between midnight and 8am. I will post an update on the possibly very interesting longer term forecast into next week by about 2pm, after I have a chance to analyze the new European model that will start coming out in a half hour.

5 Inches Already in Blairstown, Warren County, NJ

Updated Snowfall Totals

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER REPORTS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
541 AM EDT WED MAR 23 2011

THE FOLLOWING ARE UNOFFICIAL OBSERVATIONS TAKEN DURING THE PAST 7 HOURS
FOR THE STORM THAT HAS BEEN AFFECTING OUR REGION. APPRECIATION IS EXTENDED
TO HIGHWAY DEPARTMENTS...COOPERATIVE OBSERVERS...SKYWARN SPOTTERS
AND MEDIA FOR THESE REPORTS. THIS SUMMARY IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON OUR
HOME PAGE AT WEATHER.GOV/PHI

********************STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL********************

LOCATION STORM TOTAL TIME/DATE COMMENTS
SNOWFALL OF
/INCHES/ MEASUREMENT

NEW JERSEY

...MERCER COUNTY...
WEST WINDSOR TWP 1.0 535 AM 3/23

...MIDDLESEX COUNTY...
METUCHEN 1.8 511 AM 3/23
EDISON 1.7 505 AM 3/23

...MORRIS COUNTY...
ROCKAWAY 4.5 430 AM 3/23
LONG VALLEY 4.0 448 AM 3/23
STIRLING 1.0 413 AM 3/23

...SUSSEX COUNTY...
WANTAGE 0.3 532 AM 3/23

...WARREN COUNTY...
BLAIRSTOWN 5.0 500 AM 3/23
LIBERTY TWP 2.3 539 AM 3/23

PENNSYLVANIA

...MONROE COUNTY...
TOBYHANNA 4.0 329 AM 3/23

Some Snowfall Totals Already This Morning

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER REPORTS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
510 AM EDT WED MAR 23 2011

THE FOLLOWING ARE UNOFFICIAL OBSERVATIONS TAKEN DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS
FOR THE STORM THAT HAS BEEN AFFECTING OUR REGION. APPRECIATION IS EXTENDED
TO HIGHWAY DEPARTMENTS...COOPERATIVE OBSERVERS...SKYWARN SPOTTERS
AND MEDIA FOR THESE REPORTS. THIS SUMMARY IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON OUR
HOME PAGE AT WEATHER.GOV/PHI

********************STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL********************

LOCATION STORM TOTAL TIME/DATE COMMENTS
SNOWFALL OF
/INCHES/ MEASUREMENT

NEW JERSEY

...MIDDLESEX COUNTY...
EDISON 1.7 505 AM 3/23

...MORRIS COUNTY...
ROCKAWAY 4.5 430 AM 3/23
LONG VALLEY 4.0 448 AM 3/23
STIRLING 1.0 413 AM 3/23

...WARREN COUNTY...
BLAIRSTOWN 5.0 500 AM 3/23

PENNSYLVANIA

...MONROE COUNTY...
TOBYHANNA 4.0 329 AM 3/23

5 Inches Already at 5am in Blairstown, NJ

5 Inches has already fallen in Blairstown, NJ at 5am. The temperature is 31 degrees and moderate snow is falling. I encourage all of you to send in comments with your snowfall totals with the town and temperature if you have it. Thanks.

Winter Storm Warning Expanded to Warren and Morris Counties

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
502 AM EDT WED MAR 23 2011

NJZ007-008-PAZ062-231700-
/O.UPG.KPHI.WW.Y.0017.000000T0000Z-110324T1000Z/
/O.EXA.KPHI.WS.W.0008.000000T0000Z-110324T1000Z/
WARREN-MORRIS-NORTHAMPTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WASHINGTON...MORRISTOWN...BETHLEHEM...
EASTON
502 AM EDT WED MAR 23 2011

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WARNING FOR SNOW AND SLEET...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM
EDT THURSDAY. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* LOCATIONS...NORTHAMPTON COUNTY IN PENNSYLVANIA AND WARREN AND
MORRIS COUNTIES IN NEW JERSEY.

* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW AND SLEET...PERHAPS SOME RAIN MIXING IN AT
TIMES.

* ACCUMULATIONS...4 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW.

* TIMING...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

* IMPACTS...THE MORNING COMMUTE WILL BE DEGRADED BY SNOW AND SOME
SLEET. SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THIS
MORNING AND CONTINUE AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT...BEFORE TAPERING OFF THURSDAY MORNING. SOME RAIN MAY
MIX AT TIMES WITH THE SNOW...ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON. THE GREATEST IMPACTS WILL BE IN THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS...AS WELL AS ON UNTREATED AND SECONDARY ROADS.

* WINDS...NORTHEAST 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE 30S.

* VISIBILITIES...ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF MILE AT TIMES...
ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW...
SLEET...AND ICE ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE.

At 4am, 3 Inches Has Already Fallen in Blairstown, NJ!

At 4am in Blairstown, NJ 3 inches has already fallen with very heavy snow currently and a temperature of 31 degrees. Amazing. Please comment on any of your own snowfall totals so far with amount, town, and temperature if you have it. Thanks.

Latest Model Update

The latest short-range model just came in and it is a near carbon copy of the previous run. The forecast remains on track for a general 6-10 inches of snow for all of Northern New Jersey. Now we sit back and wait and watch. Have a nice evening everyone. Thanks for reading.

Some Higher Elevations Might Get More Than a Foot

I am starting to think that some higher elevations in Western Passaic County and Sussex County could get more than a foot. 6-10 everywhere else, but some people might get more than a foot.

Latest Short-Range Model Does Exactly What I Said

The latest run of the short-range American model just came out and shows exactly what I was thinking when I issued my 6-10 inch forecast for ALL of Northern New Jersey earlier today. Click here to view the snowfall accumulation map from the model - http://wxcaster4.com/nam/CONUS1_MESO-ETA212_SFC_ACCUMSNOWFALL-KUCHERA_48HR.gif
I am using a combination of this model and the European model for my forecast of 6-10 inches, while the National Weather Service is using other models in combination with those models, which produces a mixture with rain and sleet, holding down accumulations. Neither the short-range American model nor the European model shows this mixture, hence my higher snowfall forecast. If there is a mix with rain or sleet, snowfall accumulations will indeed be lower than my forecast. I am going with my gut instinct on this forecast that no one in Northern New Jersey will see any mixing, or only a very little. Let us see how it plays out. In addition, the National Weather Service is forecasting less than an inch of accumulation in the city. I think they will be very wrong with this forecast as well. I can see New York City getting substantial accumulations as well. It will be interesting to see how all of this plays out. Stay tuned and thank you for listening.

Winter Storm Warning Issued for Western Passaic and Orange Counties

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY
349 PM EDT TUE MAR 22 2011

...EARLY SPRING SNOW ON THE WAY...

NJZ002-NYZ067-230400-
/O.NEW.KOKX.WS.W.0006.110323T1000Z-110324T1400Z/
WESTERN PASSAIC-ORANGE-
349 PM EDT TUE MAR 22 2011

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM
EDT THURSDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10
AM EDT THURSDAY.

* LOCATIONS...WESTERN PASSAIC COUNTY IN NEW JERSEY AND ORANGE
COUNTY IN NEW YORK.

* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...4 TO 7 INCHES OF SNOW. HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE
IN HIGH ELEVATIONS.

* TIMING...WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THE
HEAVIEST SNOW WILL BE WEDNESDAY EVENING.

* IMPACTS...EXPECT HAZARDOUS ROAD CONDITIONS DUE TO SNOW COVERED
ROADS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW
ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. ONLY TRAVEL IN AN
EMERGENCY. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT...FOOD...
AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY.

Winter Weather Advisory Issued for Northeast New Jersey

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY
349 PM EDT TUE MAR 22 2011

...EARLY SPRING SNOW ON THE WAY...

CTZ005-006-NJZ004-103-NYZ068>070-230400-
/O.NEW.KOKX.WW.Y.0010.110323T1000Z-110324T1400Z/
NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-EASTERN PASSAIC-
WESTERN BERGEN-PUTNAM-ROCKLAND-NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-
349 PM EDT TUE MAR 22 2011

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM
EDT THURSDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR MODERATE SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY
TO 10 AM EDT THURSDAY.

* LOCATIONS...PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND THE LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY...AND INTERIOR SOUTHWEST CONNECTICUT.

* HAZARD TYPES...MODERATE SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...2 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW. HIGHEST AMOUNTS WILL
OCCUR OVER HIGH ELEVATIONS.

* TIMING...WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS...EXPECT HAZARDOUS ROAD CONDITIONS DUE TO SNOW COVERED
ROADS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR
FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.

Winter Storm Warning for Sussex County for 4-10 Inches of Snow

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
335 PM EDT TUE MAR 22 2011

NJZ001-PAZ054-055-231000-
/O.UPG.KPHI.WS.A.0006.110323T0600Z-110324T0800Z/
/O.NEW.KPHI.WS.W.0008.110323T0600Z-110324T1000Z/
SUSSEX-CARBON-MONROE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWTON...JIM THORPE...STROUDSBURG
335 PM EDT TUE MAR 22 2011

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EDT
THURSDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM
EDT THURSDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* LOCATIONS...CARBON AND MONROE COUNTIES IN PENNSYLVANIA AND
SUSSEX COUNTY IN NEW JERSEY.

* HAZARD TYPES...MAINLY SNOW WITH SLEET MIXING IN AT TIMES.

* ACCUMULATIONS...4 TO 10 INCHES OF SNOW.

* TIMING...SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT, BEFORE
TAPERING OFF THURSDAY MORNING. SLEET MAY PERIODICALLY MIX WITH
SNOW, ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

* IMPACTS...THE WEDNESDAY MORNING COMMUTE IS EXPECTED TO BE
AFFECTED BY SNOW AND POSSIBLY SLEET. SNOW AND SLEET
ACCUMULATIONS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING
COMMUTE, WITH TOTALS REACHING BETWEEN 4 AND 10 INCHES. THE
GREATEST IMPACTS WILL BE IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS, AS WELL AS
UNTREATED AND SECONDARY ROADS.

* WINDS...NORTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...AROUND 30.

* VISIBILITIES...ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF MILE AT TIMES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW...
SLEET...AND ICE ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE.

Forecast Accumulations Increased to 6-10 Inches

Based on the late morning runs of the models, I will increase expected accumulations for all of Northern New Jersey to 6-10 inches. The snow should start around 2am and there should be more than 1 inch of accumulation on the ground by 7am and about 3 inches on the ground by around mid-day. The precipitation will increase in intensity in the afternoon and there should be about 6-7 inches on the ground by 7pm on Wednesday. Another inch or two should fall before midnight and the accumulating snows should end early on Thursday morning, although light snow or flurries could linger into late morning. Total accumulation should be 6-10 inches throughout all of Northern New Jersey, and possibly even into New York City itself. Low temperatures Friday and Saturday morning will be in the teens.

Tuesday Morning Update

The current National Weather Service Winter Storm Watch for 4-8 Inches for Warren, Morris, and Sussex Counties looks good to me for an accumulation forecast for all of northern New Jersey. I would expand that area east to cover everyone, including probably New York City itself. The snow will start around 5am Wednesday morning and will end around 5am on Thursday morning. The heaviest of the snow should be in the late afternoon on Wednesday into Wednesday evening the way it looks right now. Keep checking this blog as I fine-tune the accumulation forecast. In addition, there is a chance of at least some snow this weekend depending on the track of that possible storm, and there is the possibility of more snow the middle of next week. Stay tuned.

Winter Storm Watch Issued for Warren, Morris, & Sussex Counties for 4-8 Inches of Snow

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
348 AM EDT TUE MAR 22 2011

NJZ001-007-008-PAZ054-055-060>062-222100-
/O.NEW.KPHI.WS.A.0006.110323T0600Z-110324T0800Z/
SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-CARBON-MONROE-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWTON...WASHINGTON...MORRISTOWN...
JIM THORPE...STROUDSBURG...READING...ALLENTOWN...BETHLEHEM...
EASTON
348 AM EDT TUE MAR 22 2011

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

* LOCATIONS...THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND SOUTHERN POCONOS IN EASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY.

* HAZARD TYPES...MAINLY SNOW. SOME SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN COULD
MIX WITH THE SNOW WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

* ACCUMULATIONS...4 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW.

* TIMING...THE SNOW WILL BEGIN DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF
WEDNESDAY. THE SNOW WILL FALL WITH VARYING INTENSITY DURING
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS...THE WEDNESDAY MORNING COMMUTE WILL BE AFFECTED AS SNOW
WILL BE FALLING AND UNTREATED ROADS WILL BE SLICK AND SNOW
COVERED. THE WEDNESDAY EVENING COMMUTE COULD BE AFFECTED MORE
SIGNIFICANTLY AS SNOW ACCUMULATIONS COULD REACH NEAR 6 INCHES
IN PLACES BY WEDNESDAY EVENING.

* WINDS...NORTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER 30S.

* VISIBILITIES...ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF MILE AT TIMES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

European Model Update

The European model also shows all snow in Northern New Jersey for the Wednesday into Thursday storm, but with much lighter accumulations. The European model shows the snow starting around 4am on Wednesday and ending around 9am on Thursday morning but with much lighter accumulations of around 4 inches. I think the best course of action at this point would be to forecast 4-10 inches depending on surface temperatures once again, with the higher accumulations being in the higher elevations of northwest New Jersey. Stay tuned.

More Snowfall Totals

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER REPORTS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1050 AM EDT MON MAR 21 2011

THE FOLLOWING ARE UNOFFICIAL OBSERVATIONS TAKEN DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS
FOR THE STORM THAT HAS BEEN AFFECTING OUR REGION. APPRECIATION IS EXTENDED
TO HIGHWAY DEPARTMENTS...COOPERATIVE OBSERVERS...SKYWARN SPOTTERS
AND MEDIA FOR THESE REPORTS. THIS SUMMARY IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON OUR
HOME PAGE AT WEATHER.GOV/NYC

********************STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL********************

LOCATION STORM TOTAL TIME/DATE COMMENTS
SNOWFALL OF
/INCHES/ MEASUREMENT

CONNECTICUT

...FAIRFIELD COUNTY...
NEW CANAAN 1.2 1000 AM 3/21 SKYWARN SPOTTER
WESTON 0.8 1030 AM 3/21 SKYWARN SPOTTER
BRIDGEPORT 0.7 1045 AM 3/21 NWS COOP
DANBURY 0.6 1000 AM 3/21 SKYWARN SPOTTER

NEW JERSEY

...BERGEN COUNTY...
RIDGEWOOD 0.6 900 AM 3/21 NWS COOP
1 SSE OAKLAND 0.5 900 AM 3/21 COCORAHS

...ESSEX COUNTY...
WEST ORANGE 0.8 945 AM 3/21 PUBLIC

...PASSAIC COUNTY...
WEST MILFORD 3.8 930 AM 3/21 1100` ELEV
CHARLOTTEBURG 2.0 930 AM 3/21 1200` ELEV
HASKELL 2.0 1000 AM 3/21 SKYWARN SPOTTER
WEST PATERSON 1.2 930 AM 3/21 PUBLIC
1 WNW LITTLE FALLS 1.0 1000 AM 3/21 COCORAHS

NEW YORK

...ORANGE COUNTY...
MIDDLETOWN 3.2 945 AM 3/21 PUBLIC
NEWBURGH 1.3 900 AM 3/21 SKYWARN SPOTTER

Short-Range American Model has 12-18 Inches on Wednesday/Thursday!

The short-range American model that just came out has ALL of Northern New Jersey from Hunterdon, Somerset, and the northern half of Middlesex County North getting 12-18 inches of snow on Wednesday! It may be overdone, but WOW! It is still safe to stick with a 6-10 inch forecast for now. It should start around 7am on Wednesday morning and end on Thursday afternoon around 1pm.

Warren, Morris and Sussex County Snowfall Totals

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER REPORTS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
918 AM EDT MON MAR 21 2011

THE FOLLOWING ARE UNOFFICIAL OBSERVATIONS TAKEN DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS
FOR THE STORM THAT HAS BEEN AFFECTING OUR REGION. APPRECIATION IS EXTENDED
TO HIGHWAY DEPARTMENTS...COOPERATIVE OBSERVERS...SKYWARN SPOTTERS
AND MEDIA FOR THESE REPORTS. THIS SUMMARY IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON OUR
HOME PAGE AT WEATHER.GOV/PHI

********************STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL********************

LOCATION STORM TOTAL TIME/DATE COMMENTS
SNOWFALL OF
/INCHES/ MEASUREMENT

NEW JERSEY

...HUNTERDON COUNTY...
WHITE HOUSE STATION 1.0 830 AM 3/21

...MORRIS COUNTY...
FLANDERS 3.5 815 AM 3/21
LAKE HOPATCONG 3.3 835 AM 3/21
RANDOLPH TWP 2.8 810 AM 3/21

...SUSSEX COUNTY...
WANTAGE 4.5 900 AM 3/21
NEWTON 1.8 906 AM 3/21

...WARREN COUNTY...
BLAIRSTOWN 3.0 808 AM 3/21
HACKETTSTOWN 1.0 715 AM 3/21

3 Inches Now, Moderate Snow Still Falling in Blairstown, Temperature 31 Degrees

2 Inches Now with Heavy Snow Falling and 31 Degrees in Blairstown, NJ

Up to 1.5 Inches Now

Up to 1.5 inches now in Blairstown with moderate snow still falling. Temperature 31 degrees. Roads are snow covered and slippery with MANY accidents throughout Northern New Jersey.

BIG TIME SNOW LIKELY ON WEDNESDAY

The latest run of the medium range American model just came in and shows 6-10 inches of snow on Wednesday into early Thursday. The Canadian and U.S. Navy models have been showing this for days and the short-range American model has also been showing this possibility. Expect at a minimum 3-6 inches on Wednesday/Thursday and possibly 6-10.

Over an Inch of Snow Now in Blairstown, NJ

Have over an inch of snow here now with moderate snow still falling and a temperature of 31 degrees. Roads are completely snow covered. At least 3-6 inches more for everyone in Northern New Jersey on Wednesday/Thursday, starting around 7am on Wednesday morning and ending on Thursday morning. Then maybe a little more on Saturday and possibly a big one on Monday of next week. Stay tuned.

Wow - Winter Has Returned in a Big Way

HEAVY SNOW CURRENTLY FALLING WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 31 DEGREES. A half inch has accumulated here so far and it is sticking to everything, including the roads. At least 3-6 inches more coming on Wednesday into Thursday and maybe more on Saturday and maybe a BIG snowstorm on Monday of next week. Stay tuned.

Winter Weather Advisory Expanded To Warren and Morris Counties

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
436 AM EDT MON MAR 21 2011

NJZ007-008-PAZ062-211300-
/O.EXA.KPHI.WW.Y.0016.000000T0000Z-110321T1300Z/
WARREN-MORRIS-NORTHAMPTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WASHINGTON...MORRISTOWN...BETHLEHEM...
EASTON
436 AM EDT MON MAR 21 2011

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS
MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EDT
THIS MORNING.

* LOCATIONS...PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY AND NORTHAMPTON
COUNTY PENNSYLVANIA.

* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW.

* TIMING...SNOW HAS OVERSPREAD THE REGION...WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW
OCCURRING IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS.
THE SNOW WILL CHANGE TO RAIN BETWEEN 700 AND AND 900 AM.

* IMPACTS...UNTREATED ROADWAYS WILL BECOME SLIPPERY...ESPECIALLY IN
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE BIGGEST IMPACTS SHOULD DURING THE
MORNING COMMUTE. PLAN TO LEAVE YOURSELF SOME EXTRA TIME YOUR
DESTINATION THIS MORNING.

* WINDS...SOUTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR
FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.

Wow - Winter Has Returned in a Big Way

HEAVY SNOW CURRENTLY FALLING WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 31 DEGREES. A half inch has accumulated here so far and it is sticking to everything, including the roads. At least 3-6 inches more coming on Wednesday into Thursday and maybe more on Saturday and maybe a BIG snowstorm on Monday of next week. Stay tuned.

Which Model is Correct?

The short-range model says we have nothing to worry about and it will be mostly if not all rain, while the medium-range model says we could get up to 3 inches of snow by 7am? Right now it looks to me to be too warm to snow, but we will have to wait and see if it gets any colder when the precipitation starts. Anything is possible at this point. I guess I will know like everyone else when I wake up in a few hours. It is rare to have the models in this much disagreement only a few hours before a storm starts.

Winter Weather Advisory Continued for Sussex County

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1138 PM EDT SUN MAR 20 2011

NJZ001-PAZ054-055-211145-
/O.CON.KPHI.WW.Y.0016.110321T0800Z-110321T1300Z/
SUSSEX-CARBON-MONROE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWTON...JIM THORPE...STROUDSBURG
1138 PM EDT SUN MAR 20 2011

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM
EDT MONDAY...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EDT
MONDAY.

* LOCATIONS...THE POCONOS AND SUSSEX COUNTY NEW JERSEY.

* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN.

* ACCUMULATIONS...1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS
IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. A LIGHT COATING OF ICE IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

* TIMING...SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE SNOW WILL CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN
AROUND DAYBREAK. SOME SLEET IS BRIEFLY POSSIBLE AT THE TRANSITION
TIME. AS TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK DURING THE
MID MORNING HOURS...LOOK FOR ANY MIXED PRECIPITATION TO CHANGE
TO RAIN.

* IMPACTS...UNTREATED ROADWAYS WILL BECOME SLIPPERY. THE WORST
IMPACTS SHOULD DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE. PLAN TO LEAVE
YOURSELF SOME EXTRA TIME YOUR DESTINATION.

* WINDS...SOUTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER 30S.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR
FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.

Latest Short-Range Model Says We Have Nothing to Worry About

The latest short-range model says that the temperatures will not drop much more and will not get below freezing. If this model is right it might not even be cold enough to snow, except at the higher elevations. Hopefully it is right.

Concerns Heighten

Temperature is down to 38 in Blairstown, Warren County at my weather station with a dew point of 20. Usually the low temperature meets somewhere in between after the precipitation starts. This would indicate a low here of around 29. That means snow tonight. I do not like what I am seeing so far. http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KNJBLAIR2

Latest Medium Range Model Concerns Me Greatly for Tomorrow Morning

The latest run of the medium range American model that just came out has trended significantly colder for tomorrow morning throughout Northern New Jersey. This will all be about temperatures near the ground as the precipitation will definitely be falling from the clouds as snow before about 7am. It does look like the potential is there for 1-4 inches throughout Northern New Jersey tomorrow morning prior to changing to rain, with the higher accumulations in Northwest New Jersey.

Winter Weather Advisory Continued for Sussex County

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
332 PM EDT SUN MAR 20 2011

NJZ001-PAZ054-055-210900-
/O.CON.KPHI.WW.Y.0016.110321T0800Z-110321T1300Z/
SUSSEX-CARBON-MONROE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWTON...JIM THORPE...STROUDSBURG
332 PM EDT SUN MAR 20 2011

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM
EDT MONDAY...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EDT
MONDAY.

* LOCATIONS...THE POCONOS AND SUSSEX COUNTY NEW JERSEY.

* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN.

* ACCUMULATIONS...AROUND 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW...MAINLY IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF LESS THAN ONE-TENTH OF AN
INCH.

* TIMING...SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS OF MONDAY. THE SNOW WILL CHANGE TO FREEZING
RAIN AROUND DAYBREAK. SOME SLEET IS BRIEFLY POSSIBLE AT THE
TRANSITION TIME. AS TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK
DURING THE MID MORNING HOURS...LOOK FOR ANY MIXED PRECIPITATION
TO CHANGE TO RAIN.

* IMPACTS...UNTREATED ROADWAYS WILL BECOME SLIPPERY. THE WORST IMPACTS
SHOULD DURING THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE. PLAN TO LEAVE YOURSELF
SOME EXTRA TIME YOUR DESTINATION DURING THE MONDAY MORNING
COMMUTE.

* WINDS...SOUTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER 30S.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR
FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.

We Might Escape Tomorrow Morning but Probably Not Wednesday/Thursday

The precipitation early tomorrow morning will definitely fall from the clouds as snow, but it might melt before it makes it to the ground, if we are lucky. We just have to wait and watch the temperatures as they fall tonight. It can snow up to about 35-36 degrees under these conditions but it would have a hard time sticking at those temperatures even if it does snow. I hope that we will escape problems for the morning rush. My biggest concern with this storm is for those who live in the higher elevations of Sussex County. Those areas have the best chances for getting below freezing and therefore of having accumulating snow.

As for the Wednesday/Thursday storm, this storm has a great deal more potential for causing problems. Snow will start around 4am on Wednesday morning and continue until Thursday morning. It will probably stay snow the entire time, but there is the possibility of it mixing with rain or sleet for a time during mid-day on Wednesday, but that is questionable. We will probably end up getting 3-6 inches of snow the way it looks now and possibly a little more if it does not mix with rain or sleet.

Latest Short Range Model Run Comes in Warmer

The latest run of the short-range American model has come in warmer with the surface temperatures, so it is possible that tomorrow morning’s commute will not be as bad as previously feared. In fact, if we are lucky and temperatures do remain above freezing, it is possible that we could see mainly rain, especially in areas further to the south. This is what I was thinking prior to yesterday morning's models coming out with a colder solution and making changes in the forecast. We will have to wait and see but I am hoping that we stay above freezing. If we do, it will make it difficult for any snow to accumulate, even if it does fall as snow instead of rain in the morning. This will all be about ground temperatures.

Some Bad Weather on the Way

Things will likely be ugly for the morning commute tomorrow across Northern New Jersey. Snow will start sometime around 4am and will continue until around 7am, possibly accumulating to 1-2 inches prior to changing to sleet. The sleet should continue until around 9am when it finally changes to rain. The next system of major concern will enter Northern New Jersey on Wednesday morning at around 7am as snow. The exact track that this storm takes will make the difference between all snow, and a lot of it, and a mixture of rain, sleet and snow. No matter what, it looks like the Wednesday/Thursday storm will cause significant travel problems on Wednesday and Thursday. I will post updates as the late morning and early afternoon models come out. Stay tuned.

Winter Weather Advisory Issued for Sussex County

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
403 AM EDT SUN MAR 20 2011

NJZ001-PAZ054-055-202115-
/O.NEW.KPHI.WW.Y.0016.110321T0800Z-110321T1300Z/
SUSSEX-CARBON-MONROE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWTON...JIM THORPE...STROUDSBURG
403 AM EDT SUN MAR 20 2011

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EDT
MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN...WHICH IS IN
EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY.

* LOCATIONS...THE POCONOS AND SUSSEX COUNTY NEW JERSEY.

* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN.

* ACCUMULATIONS...1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW...MAINLY IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF LESS THAN ONE-TENTH OF AN INCH.

* TIMING...SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS OF MONDAY. THE SNOW WILL CHANGE TO SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK. AS TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE
THE FREEZING MARK DURING THE MID MORNING HOURS...LOOK FOR THE
MIXED PRECIPITATION TO CHANGE TO RAIN.

* IMPACTS...UNTREATED ROADWAYS WILL BECOME SLIPPERY. THE WORST
IMPACTS SHOULD DURING THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE. PLAN TO LEAVE
YOURSELF SOME EXTRA TIME YOUR DESTINATION DURING THE MONDAY
MORNING COMMUTE.

* WINDS...SOUTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER 30S.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR
FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.

&&

$$

HAYES